Zeby rozruszac grupe przed sezonem L'e postanowil wrzucic profile z insidera. Ma jednak klopot techniczny i ja, jako sympatyk Heat, mam zaszczyt uczynic to za niego.

Smacznego!!!


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Player Profiles: Miami Heat By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
Archive


Here are my player scouting reports and 2011-12 projections for the Miami Heat (Note: Projections are for players who played 500 or more minutes in the NBA in '10-11.)
PROJECTED STARTERS

MARIO CHALMERS, PG (FREE AGENT -- RESTRICTED)
   Projection: 11.5 pts, 3.4 reb, 4.3 ast per 40 min; 10.26 PER | Player card

• Spot-up shooting point guard who rarely penetrates. A 3-point threat.
• Average at best as ball handler. Throws away passes. Professionalism a concern.
• Good size for guard and great hands, but average defender overall. Foul-prone.

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Chalmers once again struggled with inconsistency in his third pro season, somehow losing a starting job that was waiting for him on a silver platter and failing to take advantage of the myriad open looks that came his way. Chalmers shot 35.9 percent on 3s and 39.7 percent on 2s beyond 10 feet; that's not good enough for a spot-up shooting specialist playing with two All-World wingmen.

Three-fifths of his shots were 3s and he rarely created shots on his own, ranking 62nd out of 67 point guards in usage rate. His distribution at the point was nonexistent, averaging just 4.2 assists per 40 minutes and somehow posting one of the worst turnover ratios at his position despite the limited role asked of him.

Defensively, Chalmers has good size for a point guard and is active, but not always in a good way. He has lightning-quick hands and ranked ninth among point guards in steals per minute, but he also fouled too often (only five point guards fouled more per minute) and took poor gambles. Overall, he's an average defender, which is fine if he's making shots. If he's not, like last year, it's tough to justify playing him.

DWYANE WADE, SG
   Projection: 26.9 pts, 6.3 reb, 5.5 ast per 40 min; 25.03 PER | Player card

• Electrifying wing with blinding quickness and quick leaping ability.
• Great at splitting pick-and-roll. Poor shooter but draws heaps of fouls with fakes.
• Ball-hawking defender but gambles too much. Good on ball. Rebounds well.


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As expected, Wade traded in some of his usage rate for a higher shooting percentage once LeBron James came aboard, shooting a career-high 50 percent but losing nearly two points and more than two assists off his 40-minute average. He still was a brilliant player, but he spotted up more often and shot more jumpers, which dimmed his luster a bit. Wade shot 30.6 percent on 3s and 37.5 percent on long 2s; of more concern was that these shots comprised nearly half his attempts.

Initiating offense less frequently, Wade also had fewer assists, but the big shock was the spike in turnovers. Wade was 53rd among shooting guards in turnover ratio; while he's always been a high-turnover player, last season's spike was unexpected given how much less was expected of him as a distributor. This applies more generally to all the Heat players -- nearly all of them had far higher turnover ratios than one would have imagined given their roles, and Miami as a team was only 17th in this category.

Wade did take advantage of his off-ball time by crashing the boards, ranking third among shooting guards in offensive rebound rate. And as usual he drew better than a free throw attempt for every two field goal attempts, a ratio that placed him third at his position. Once again, Wade's ability to get defenders to buy fakes is a big reason; even though he's not a good outside shooter, opponents somehow feel compelled to come flying at him as though he's Reggie Miller. If there's a concern, it's how much longer he can keep doing this; Wade is 29, has taken a beating with all the contact he draws and has already had several notable injuries.

Defensively, Wade is the best 6-foot-4 shot-blocker ever. Last season he averaged 1.2 blocks per 40 minutes, which not only led all shooting guards but was better than the league average for power forwards. He's the only player 6-5 or shorter to average more than a block a game in two different seasons; last season was the fifth time he's done it. Wade's biggest problem is staying at home; he still gambles himself out of position at times. However, he's a good one-on-one defender thanks to his superior athleticism. While his defensive stats weren't overwhelming last season, subjectively he's one of the better defenders at his position.

LeBRON JAMES, SF
   Projection: 28.7 pts, 7.8 reb, 7.2 ast per 40 min; 27.39 PER | Player card

• Bruising wing with a point guard's handle and a center's body. Deadly at rim.
• Average outside shooter. Can pass and create but tends to stop ball.
• Outstanding rebounder. Excellent defensive player who can guard 1 through 5.


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In three short games, James' postseason went from "greatest of all time" to "what was that?" just when it seemed he would unburden himself of the title of the league's No. 1 villain. After a sizzling 13-game stretch that saw him shove aside Boston and Chicago and win two of the first three against Dallas, James' puzzling lack of aggression and bizarre post-defeat comments left him as vilified as ever.

James showed he's the best player in the league in the Eastern Conference playoffs -- when he shredded the league's two best defenses while smothering MVP Derrick Rose at the other end -- but the Finals served to show off all his remaining imperfections. In particular, it highlighted his penchant for holding the ball and for "flaming bag" assists, in which he sends the ball around the perimeter to a player who isn't particularly open and has very little time to make a play. If the guy hits a shot it's an assist for LeBron, and if it misses it counts only against the shooter, but basketball-wise it's not much of a play. Of his six assists in the deciding Game 6, for instance, none were inside 18 feet.

I bring this up because the research I did on assist quality (see also the comments on Chris Paul and Baron Davis) supports the idea that James' passes aren't always the most incisive. Using data from Hoopdata.com on the location of player assists, the average assist from James was worth considerably less than those from most other players, because they were far more likely to be a low-percentage shot.

While the average assist is worth about 0.67 points, my research indicates that an assist from James was worth more like 0.58 points because so many of them were midrange jumpers. For the season, 42.6 percent of his assists produced a 2-point jumper away from the rim, one of the highest rates in the league. Conversely, only 29.6 percent of his assists led to a dunk or a layup; among players with at least 200 assists, only four players were worse.

Based on shooting percentages at each distance, I calculated that the marginal value of an average dunk/layup assist is about 1.329 points in 2010-11, whereas the marginal value of an assist on a long 2 was just 0.356 points. Make this adjustment for all the league's playmakers and it becomes clear that James' assists were worth a lot less than most other players'. Among those with at least 300 assists, only two players had lower-value assists (see chart).

Lowest average assist value, 2010-11
Player Team Avg. assist Value
Joe Johnson Atl .572
Darren Collison Ind .577
LeBron James Mia .581
Brandon Jennings Mil .588
Jordan Farmar NJ .590
League average   .667
Source: Hoopdata.com. Min. 300 assists

I don't want to overstate the impact of this -- even if we adjusted the value of his assists, James still would have led the league in PER. But the passing data is important because, although a small forward, James effectively plays point guard; he, not any of Miami's nominal guards, led the team in pure point rating.

James, incidentally, made quite a bit of progress as a midrange shooter last season, a fact that should worry the entire Eastern Conference. He shot only 33.0 percent on 3s, but made 44.6 percent of his shots beyond 10 feet. He's still ridiculous at the rim -- he shot 72.1 percent at the basket, in addition to drawing multitudes of fouls -- but his midrange game is now a threat too. It's only from long range that conceding the jumper to James still makes sense.

A few other notes on James. First, he doesn't get nearly enough credit for his defense. Before he swallowed Rose whole in the conference finals, Synergy rated James as the league's second-best defender behind Dwight Howard. He allowed an 11.9 PER to opposing small forwards according to 82games.com, while basketballvalue.com says Miami gave up 4.51 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court. And finally, here's a James stat that may surprise you: The man renowned for the chase-down block was below the league average for small forwards in blocks per minute.




CHRIS BOSH, PF
   Projection: 21.0 pts, 9.6 reb, 2.2 ast p/40 min; 19.82 PER | Player card

• Lanky, left-handed high-scoring forward who can shoot, drive and finish.
• Excels at taking opposing bigs off dribble to draw fouls. Has 20-foot range.
• Mobile defender but not particularly tough. Lacks strength. Rarely fouls.


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In some ways Bosh was the Heat's most indispensable player. If LeBron James or Dwyane Wade checked out, there was still an All-Star wing on the floor, but when Bosh left, the Heat frontcourt immediately became the league's worst. That's why it was Bosh, not Wade or James, who had the best raw adjusted plus-minus on the team, at 9.86 points per 100 possessions. With Udonis Haslem back, the differential may be less pronounced this season.

Nonetheless, Bosh had a disappointing first season in Miami. While it was unrealistic to expect him to repeat the heights of a career year in Toronto in 2009-10, his vertiginous drop of 6.0 points from his 40-minute scoring average was all the more shocking because it came with no gains in efficiency. Additionally, he disappeared on the glass, with his 9.2 boards per 40 minutes being his worst since his rookie year.

He's still a deadly pick-and-pop weapon who made 45 percent of his shots beyond 10 feet, and he wasn't too shabby at the rim either (69.9 percent). Bosh has also mastered the free throw game -- he was seventh among power forwards in free throw attempts per field goal attempt, but hardly ever fouled himself; only one power forward was whistled less often.

Despite that, he was solid defensively. While Bosh has a reputation as a shrinking violet because he doesn't play physically, his length and mobility are very helpful, and he put a lot more effort into it than he'd done in Toronto.




JOEL ANTHONY, C
   Projection: 4.0 pts, 7.2 reb, 0.6 ast per 40 min; 6.55 PER | Player card

• Undersized, energetic center with excellent mobility and shot-blocking skill.
• Brutal offensive player. Can't shoot, has terrible hands and no instincts.
• Poor rebounder despite athleticism, especially on defense. Poor finisher at rim.


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Anthony is a useful defensive player; let's start with that. Miami gave up fewer points with him on the court, he was 11th among centers in blocks per minute, and Synergy graded him well ahead of the curve. But let's not get carried away; opposing centers still had a 14.2 PER against him, he had the fourth-worst defensive rebound rate among centers, and for a guy whose mobility is an asset, it was bizarre to see him sport the lowest rate of steals per minute in the NBA -- Anthony had only 10 in 1,463 minutes (see Joey Graham comment).

His defensive value, however, is more than offset by the fact that he is the single worst offensive player in basketball. Instead of his name and number, Anthony's jersey should have just said "AVOID." For the most part, that's what the Heat did. His 4.9 usage rate was not only the lowest in the NBA, it was the lowest in the league in nearly two decades; not since Charles Jones was playing dodgeball for the Bullets in the early '90s has a player been this adept at uninvolvement. Anthony scored 53 baskets in 75 games, even though nobody was guarding him; normally a player like this at least gets some second shots, but Anthony wasn't good at offensive rebounding either.

Lowest Usage Rate, 2010-11
Player Team Usage Rate
Joel Anthony Mia 4.9
Joel Przybilla Por-Cha 7.0
Erick Dampier Mia 7.4
Ben Wallace Det 8.1
Jared Jeffries Hou-NY 8.5
Min. 500 minutes

Fewest Points Per 40 minutes, 2010-11
Player Team Pts/40
Joel Anthony Mia 4.2
Joel Przybilla Por-Cha 4.9
Jared Jeffries Hou-NY 4.9
Ben Wallace Det 5.0
Erick Dampier Mia 6.3
Min. 500 minutes

Overall, then, he was a real drag. The Heat gave him a five-year contract last summer because he was something of an organizational teacher's pet, doing everything asked of him. Given the other dregs the Heat had available at center, I'm sure Miami felt that since at least Anthony could do something -- defend -- he was the least bad option.

To an extent they're right -- Anthony is a valuable defender. He's just so awful offensively that his only usage should come as an end-of-quarter defensive replacement.





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KEY RESERVES




MIKE MILLER, SG
   Projection: 10.4 pts, 9.0 reb, 2.8 ast per 40 min; 10.68 PER | Player card

• Big wing with textbook shooting form. Excellent, underrated rebounder.
• Reluctant shooter who rarely attacks and forces passes. Good right-hand driver.
• Solid defender against most 3s thanks to size, but too slow to defend 2s.


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Miller damaged both thumbs and it cost him his main differentiating skill, his deadly set shot off the catch. His struggle shooting was evident in the numbers: he shot just 36 percent on 3s and was 12-of-40 on long 2s.

But even worse were the shots he didn't take at all. With little confidence in his loosely attached digits, Miller constantly passed up shots and had the fourth-lowest usage rate of any shooting guard. Often, instead of shooting, he'd try to force a pass into traffic; as a result, he had the second-worst turnover ratio of any shooting guard.

The worry is that he'll continue doing this even when healthy, as Miller exhibited similar signs in Minnesota and Washington. If the thumbs are at full strength and Miller can be cajoled into shooting, however, he can make the Heat a much more potent offensive outfit than they were last season.

What did stand out is what a hellacious rebounder Miller has become. Ask 100 basketball fans whether LeBron James or Mike Miller had a better rebound rate last season, and at least 98 of them will get the wrong answer. Miller's awesome 13.0 rate was not only better than LeBron's, it was the best of any shooting guard in the NBA and better than that of 19 centers, including two on his own team.




UDONIS HASLEM, PF
   No projection | Player card

• Tough, smart, pick-and-pop power forward who rarely makes mistakes.
• Not a great athlete but a solid defender and rebounder. Rarely creates own shot.
• Has 18-foot range. Limited post game. Undersized 4 but strong, physical.


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Haslem missed nearly the entire season with a foot injury, but his return in the playoffs solidified the frontcourt rotation and gave Miami the upper hand on Chicago in particular. He played only 347 minutes before checking out so there isn't a ton to discuss, especially since, statistically, he did the same things he does every other season.

Of note, however, is that he continues to rip the nets on long 2s. He shot 46.6 percent in 2009-10, and made 49.2 percent in his brief 2010-11 cameo.




JAMES JONES, SF (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)
   Projection: 11.4 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.2 ast per 40 min; 9.58 PER | Player card

• One-dimensional corner 3-point shooter. Has no idea he's allowed to dribble.
• Poor athlete, but has good size for 3 and plays passable defense. Bad rebounder.


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The ultimate Johnny One-Note, Jones did nothing but shoot 3s from the corner, except for that one time he tried a shot at the basket. No, seriously -- he took one shot at the basket all season. In 1,551 minutes.

Needless to say, Jones had the league's lowest rate of shot attempts at the rim last season (see chart). In a related note, Jones had 98.6 percent of his baskets assisted, the most of any perimeter player except Brian Cardinal.

Fewest shots at the rim per minute, 2010-11
Player Team Shots at rim/min.
James Jones Mia .025
Brian Cardinal Dal .065
Carlos Arroyo Mia-Bos .160
Steve Blake LAL .177
Daequan Cook OKC .200
Source: Hoopdata.com. Min. 500 minutes.

Jones' other stats similarly highlight his offensive extremes. He had the second-lowest turnover ratio, because all he had to do was catch and shoot. He took five shots inside 15 feet all year. He led the NBA in secondary percentage, because nearly all his shots were 3s, and was second among small forwards in TS%. He was last among small forwards in usage rate, because he just stood in the corner all game.

Somehow, Jones drew a decent number of free throw attempts, as he has become very good at pump-faking the 3 and drawing contact -- most memorably on the play that led to his playoff fracas with Paul Pierce.

Defensively, he wasn't bad; his biggest shortcoming was a pathetic rebound rate. Opposing small forwards mustered just a 13.2 PER against him according to 82games.com, and his Synergy and plus-minus data were solid. Overall he's an extremely limited player, but one whose strengths fit in quite well with Miami's roster.




EDDIE HOUSE, SG
  Projection: 13.3 pts, 3.6 reb, 2.5 ast p/40 min; 10.41 PER | Player card

• Small, shoot-first guard with quick, accurate jumper. Good at getting open.
• Awful ball handler for size. Can't bring ball up against pressure.
• Good defensive effort but lacks size and athleticism. Never draws fouls.


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In retrospect, it's surprising that House didn't play more, given what a threat his weak-side long-distance sniping can be. Miami didn't need him to bring the ball up, which is good because he can't, but House can competently defend opposing point guards and he can score. House averaged 14.8 points per 40 minutes -- solid, but also the fewest since his rookie year -- and did it with the lowest turnover ratio among point guards.

He could have done better, as House actually had a tough shooting year by his standards. He made just 38.9 percent of his 3s and 39.5 percent of his long 2s. Of course, that's a glass-half-full view; it was also his second straight year of shooting in the 30s, and he's 33 years old, and his scoring rate declined for the third straight year.

Defensively, House is light and a B athlete who can be bullied by big guards, but he's quick and competes. His Synergy grades were shockingly good; while I'll take that with a grain of salt or 10 given the limited minutes, his other numbers weren't bad either. All told, he might have been Miami's best option at the point, even shooting 39 percent and not being able to get the ball upcourt. If he makes more shots, he certainly is.





NORRIS COLE, PG
   No projection | Player card

• Solid point guard with broad-based skills and excellent handle.
• Not great at any one thing, but few weaknesses. Lacks elite athleticism.
• Mediocre long-range shooter. Better at midrange pull-ups. Thin frame.


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Cole didn't get a lot of national hype playing for tiny Cleveland State, but scouts in the know salivated over him all season. He's a rock-solid pick-and-roll point guard with a lot of subtle moves to free himself, one of those guys who just knows how to play.

He's not a super athlete and he'll have to improve his 34 percent mark on 3-pointers in his final two collegiate seasons, but he improved steadily throughout his college career and earned rave reviews for his work ethic along the way. Given Miami's needs, I thought he was great value for a late first-round pick; if he hits 3s he could be starting by the time the playoffs roll around.




MIKE BIBBY, PG (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)
  Projection: 11.9 pts, 3.4 reb, 4.8 ast per 40 min; 10.70 PER | Player card

• Small, steady jump-shooting point guard with low release point. Quick trigger.
• Low-mistake player. Rarely penetrates or draws fouls.
• Poor defensive player. Lacks both size and quickness. Doesn't rebound.


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Despite making 44 percent of his 3s, Bibby's steady decline continued -- culminating in a DNP in the decisive Game 6 of the Finals. Bibby can space the floor and handles the ball well enough to orchestrate offense, but between his small stature and lack of athleticism he's a liability in every other area. He can't create his own shot or finish anything besides an open jumper, which is easily seen in two stats: his usage rate, the fifth-worst among point guards, and his free throw rate, the second-worst.

Bibby struggled even on long 2s (36.4 percent on 2s beyond 10 feet), and virtually never got into the paint -- in addition to the anemic free throw rate, he had only 52 attempts inside 10 feet in 2,286 minutes.

And defensively, it was a constant game in both Atlanta and Miami to hide him on the weak side against bad offensive players. But even so Bibby contributed little from the help side -- he was only 62nd among point guards in steals per minute, and Synergy gave him poor grades in both Atlanta and Miami. Bibby likely can stick around in the league another year or two because of his perimeter shooting threat, but his days as an NBA starter ended the second Miami turned in its lineup sheet for Game 6.




ERICK DAMPIER, C (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)
   Projection: 7.5 pts, 8.4 reb, 1.4 ast per 40 min; 9.41 PER | Player card

• Formerly active offensive rebounder whose zeal has greatly diminished.
• Average defensive center. Has good size but not terribly mobile or active.
• Has no post game or ballhandling skill. Won't shoot from outside.


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Here's all you need to know about Dampier's tenure in Miami: His defining skill his entire career has been his offensive rebounding, and he ranked 51st among centers in offensive rebound rate last season. All that goes to explain why he averaged a pathetic 6.3 points per 40 minutes, and why he had a single-digit PER, and why he's probably about at the end of the line.

Defensively, Dampier wasn't bad in Miami. He's still big and he can move around fairly well, ranking 16th among centers in blocks per minute. Synergy graded him among the league's best centers in his limited minutes; while the other defensive stats weren't as effusive in their praise, it's clear he retains some value at this end.

But offensively? Egads. Dampier's main job was "stay out of the way," yet he still posted one of the highest turnover ratios in basketball. His rate of 6.3 points per 40 minutes was the fifth-lowest in the league (of course, in Miami this made him the Heat's "offensive" center), and the mysterious disappearance of his offensive boards left him without a function since he has no post game or jump shot.






JUWAN HOWARD, PF (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)
  Projection: 8.2 pts,7.9 reb, 1.4 ast per 40 min; 7.63 PER | Player card

• Limited veteran big man who shoots line-drive, double-clutching 15-footers.
• Has lost athleticism. Poor finisher at rim and subpar rebounder.
• Physical defender but can't jump, and never blocks shots. Low-mistake player.


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The canary in the coal mine for the Heat's bench woes, Howard was the first sub off the bench in one of the Boston games and played regularly in the Finals even though he's 38 and hasn't been good in five years. He averaged 9.4 points per 40 minutes, had a TS% under 50, and in his specialty of midrange shooting shot 39.0 percent. Also, Synergy rated him as one of the worst defenders at his position. Other than that he was great.

JAMAAL MAGLIORE, C (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)
   No projection | Player card

• Long-armed, slow-footed center who can barely jump. Strong post defender.
• Excellent rebounder. Little offensive value, but crashes boards and draws fouls.


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Magloire played only 158 minutes, operating as a bit of a poor man's Joel Anthony in that his value at the defensive end was more than offset by his utter uselessness when Miami had the ball. While Magloire can't outjump a Pop-Tart, his size and long arms make him a very good rebounder; last season's prodigious rebound rate of 22.9 not only provided nearly all of his rare points, but gave him a defensive impact because he limited second shots.




DEXTER PITTMAN, C
   No projection | Player card

• Powerful physical force around basket. Overweight but got in better shape.
• Short for a center but long arms. Good hands. Poor foul shooter.
• Can defend post but lacks mobility. Liability in pick-and-roll defense.


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A second-round project, Pittman played only 11 minutes for the Heat last season, but he played 22 games in the D-League for South Florida and put up serviceable big-guy stats. The biggest red flag was that he committed a foul every seven minutes; if he's hacking that much at that level, he's going to be a whistle magnet in the NBA. At the other end he'll draw a fair number of fouls himself because of his sheer size and strength, but he made only 54.8 percent of his freebies in the D-League.

The most notable development, however, was that Pittman got into much better shape as the year went on. He was over 300 pounds when Miami drafted him, but if he can keep the weight off he could evolve into a decent backup center.

s napisal posta, ktorego chcialbym skomentowac:

Zeby rozruszac grupe przed sezonem L'e postanowil wrzucic profile z insidera. Ma jednak klopot techniczny i ja, jako sympatyk Heat, mam zaszczyt uczynic to za niego.

Ze tak zapytam... a w jaki sposob ma to ja rozruszac?
Pare osob przeczyta fragmenty, skinie glowami i tyle.

Gdybys dodal, ze "u kazdego gracza zostal dodany jeden l'e-manowiec
przez samego Leszczura" to moze bylaby jakas zabawa ;-)


--
pzdr
wiLQ @ weaksideawareness.wordpress.com

W dniu 2011-11-29 15:41, wiLQ pisze:

s napisal posta, ktorego chcialbym skomentowac:

Zeby rozruszac grupe przed sezonem L'e postanowil wrzucic profile z
insidera. Ma jednak klopot techniczny i ja, jako sympatyk Heat, mam
zaszczyt uczynic to za niego.

Ze tak zapytam... a w jaki sposob ma to ja rozruszac?
Pare osob przeczyta fragmenty, skinie glowami i tyle.

Noo, wlasnie rozruszal - wywolal wiLQa z lasu!

Poza tym - kazdy taki artykul moze stanowic pretekst do naszej oceny potencjalu kazdej z druzyn.

Choc tu oczywiscie nie ma o czym dyskutowac. Heat to murowani kandydaci na dynastie, Bron zje rywali zywcem (nie tym "żywcem", o ktorym wiekszosc mysli), Dalembert nie wpusci nikogo z rywali pod kosz, a Bosh z gracja wpaduje sie w role "tego trzeciego" i bedzie pozamiatane na lata :-)

Pozdr
Slawek

s napisal posta, ktorego chcialbym skomentowac:

Choc tu oczywiscie nie ma o czym dyskutowac. Heat to murowani kandydaci na dynastie, [...] Dalembert nie wpusci nikogo z rywali pod kosz [...]

O! Tzn Twoja lista swiatecznych zyczen jest taka sama jak Sama? ;-)


--
pzdr
wiLQ @ weaksideawareness.wordpress.com