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LA LAKERS
2008-09 Recap

Is there an opposite of "team of destiny"? The Los Angeles Lakers won
65 regular-season games and needed five games in the NBA Finals to
cruise to the championship, but at no time did it feel preordained. In
fact, for much of their playoff run the focus was more on the Lakers'
problems -- the struggles of Andrew Bynum and Derek Fisher, the lack
of toughness that derailed them a year earlier against the Boston
Celtics, and a couple of woeful efforts in the second round against
Houston.

And despite the white-hot spotlight that glared on the league's most
popular team, Boston and the Cleveland Cavaliers stole a lot of the
Lakers' limelight during the regular season. For their part, the
Lakers didn't really look like champions until the fifth game of the
conference finals … at which point they won six out of their next
seven to storm to the crown.

The Lakers also threw us off their championship scent with an
embarrassing showing in Games 4 and 6 of the Houston Rockets series.
Despite playing without Yao Ming, Houston exposed every L.A. weakness
-- complacency, softness, lack of quickness at the point guard spot,
and shot selection in the backcourt -- en route to a pair of lopsided
wins.

In a way, perhaps the Lakers should thank the Rockets. Seeing such a
harsh light shone on those weaknesses seemed to compel L.A. to address
them, and the sloppy play magically cleaned itself up over the final
month. Shannon Brown cemented the guard rotation, Kobe Bryant and
Derek Fisher stopped forcing the action, and the Lakers benefited from
not having to face a point guard with Aaron Brooks' quickness the rest
of the postseason.


HOLLINGER'S '08-09 STATS
W-L: 65-17 (Pythagorean W-L: 63-19)
Offensive Efficiency: 109.8 (3rd)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.9 (5th)
Pace Factor: 96.7 (7th)
Highest PER: Kobe Bryant (24.46)

Additionally, history should have taught us that second-round
struggles are a common problem for eventual champions. As I noted at
the time, the Lakers are the seventh straight champion to hit a major
speed bump in the second round, and surviving those scrapes seemed to
propel them toward the championship rather than slow their progress.

That was certainly the case for L.A. But before it could reach that
point, a number of events needed to happen to push them to 65 wins and
a top seed in the Western Conference. For starters, Lamar Odom
accepted a bench role, moving from small forward to power forward in
the process. That move netted two huge, positive effects for the
Lakers. First, it allowed L.A. to use a devastating three-man
frontcourt rotation of Gasol, Bynum and Odom that few opponents could
battle. Second, it permitted Trevor Ariza -- filched from Orlando in a
trade the previous season -- to move into the starting lineup and
solidify the small forward spot.

Less well documented is perhaps the greatest salary dump in franchise
history. The Lakers are more renowned for accumulating payroll than
shedding it, but it was their divestment of the Vladimir Radmanovic
mistake that reaped rewards this time. Guard Shannon Brown, included
as a throw-in from Charlotte, provided much-needed stability as a
backcourt reserve and hit some huge shots in the playoffs -- most
notably when he turned the tide in the crucial Game 5 of the
conference finals with an earth-shattering third-quarter dunk.

Brown's addition helped the Lakers overcome two major disappointments
-- the off year from Jordan Farmar and the inability of Bynum to come
back at full strength from a midseason injury.

Slated as the heir apparent to Fisher at the point, Farmar suffered a
nightmare season and was largely out of the rotation by the playoffs.
As for Bynum, he played extremely well early in the season, a
performance that made L.A. notably stronger at the defensive end over
the first half of the season. But for the second year in a row a
midseason knee injury threw him off stride. While he returned in the
postseason, Bynum proved ineffective until the Finals and never
regained the All-Star caliber form he'd shown earlier in the season.

The fact L.A. won the title despite huge setbacks from its two most
prominent young players is a testament to the depth and quality of the
Lakers' talent. With Bryant and Gasol, the Lakers were a fearsome
offensive team even when others struggled, as evidenced by their third-
place finish in offensive efficiency.

Unusually for a dominant offensive team, L.A. wasn't particularly good
at long-range shooting. The Lakers nailed only 36.1 percent of their 3-
pointers, a bit below the league average, and didn't attempt the shot
with great frequency.

Instead, L.A. overwhelmed its opposition two points at a time. L.A.
claimed the league's fifth-lowest turnover rate and, thanks to the
size advantage in the frontcourt, it's third-best offensive rebound
rate. As a result, only two teams averaged more shot attempts per
possession. Additionally, they were potent shooters inside the arc --
L.A. converted 50.5 percent of its two-point shots, again finishing
third in the league. While primarily an offensive team, the Lakers
demonstrated an improved defense as well. They ranked fifth in
defensive efficiency, with exquisite 3-point defense being their
primary calling card.

The Lakers held opponents to only 34.5 percent shooting from the arc,
which was the third-best mark in the NBA. They further amplified the
impact by convincing opponents to fire from distance -- only three
teams allowed a higher rate of 3-pointers per field-goal attempt.
While normally that's a bad sign, because L.A. defended the 3 so well,
it turned into a positive. In fact, their opposition had a better true
shooting percentage inside the arc, which is unusual.

This appeared to be part of a larger defensive strategy by L.A. --
they'd let opponents fire 3s off the dribble on pick-and-rolls, and
keep their big men back to protect the basket. Some quick guards were
able to take advantage, but many opponents shot themselves out of the
game trying. Like most of Phil Jackson's gambits, it worked, and as a
result he won a record-setting 10th championship. That wouldn't have
shocked anybody if you'd told them before the season, but for much of
the spring it seemed they were on a very different path.



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Offseason Moves

It's a bit much to call the Lakers fiscally "conservative" -- they're
probably going to have the league's highest payroll this season, and
their willingness to shell out $15 million more in luxury tax was what
made the 2008 heist of Pau Gasol possible.

But for a world champion team that is pulling in revenue by the
fistful, L.A. definitely shows caution with marginal payroll
increases. In addition to last winter's salary dumps of Radmanovic and
Chris Mihm, the Lakers held the line in contract negotiations with
three rotation players this summer and avoided trades that would take
on additional salary.

Let Trevor Ariza go, signed Ron Artest for five years, $34 million.
This was the biggest roll of the dice in the Lakers' summer. They
didn't want to pay Ariza more than the midlevel exception and turned
to Artest when they couldn't agree on a deal with Ariza. While the
risk of paying Artest for five years is huge -- nobody knows what
he'll do five minutes from now, let alone five years -- L.A.'s
willingness to venture into the tax makes it better able to withstand
the risk than most.

The Lakers also benefit in a couple of other ways from this deal.
First, Artest is capable of playing the 4, which adds to the Lakers'
lineup options. Second, he's a much better spot-up shooter than Ariza
-- Artest hit 39.9 percent on 3s last season, while Ariza is at 29.9
percent for his career. Ariza's hot shooting from the corners in the
playoffs last season convinced some people that he's a good long-range
threat, but history says he's not.

Obviously, this comes with some risks, too. Artest is half a decade
older than Ariza, isn't nearly as good a finisher, and may submarine
the offense if he isn't willing to become L.A's fourth option. And of
course, he's Ron Artest. But the Lakers weren't likely to repeat if
they stood pat given the arms race going on in the East, and Artest is
unquestionably the league's most qualified player to defend LeBron
James one-on-one -- a salient point given the likelihood of facing
Cleveland in the Finals.

Re-signed Shannon Brown for two years, $4 million. This was a fair
value deal for a great bench energizer in last season's playoff run.
Brown had never played well before so he couldn't command the salary
he might have as a more proven quantity, but he's a solid insurance
policy against flameouts by Fisher and/or Farmar.

Re-signed Lamar Odom for four years, $33 million. This was
unquestionably the biggest story of the summer in L.A., as the two
sides briefly walked away from the negotiating table when the Lakers
wouldn't meet Odom's number. This would have proven hugely costly if
Odom had been willing to relocate, because L.A. had no way to replace
his spot under the salary cap rules. Fortunately, it turned out to be
a great poker move by the Lakers. Odom loves Southern California and
desperately wanted to return, so he ended up agreeing to a very
favorable deal for L.A. The fourth year is a team option at a lower
number than the first three, giving the Lakers a great deal of salary
flexibility as they move into the future.

Drafted Chinemelu Elonu. The late second-round choice was a stow-away
pick and is almost certainly headed for Europe. His name is better
than his game -- he's a project forward who may be heard from in a
couple years, if ever.



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Biggest Strength: Frontcourt

Sure, they have Kobe Bryant, and that's enough of an advantage on many
nights. But the advantage that doesn't get enough attention is the
Lakers' size and quality up front. A lot of teams just can't deal with
L.A. because of the size of Bynum and Gasol up front. Bynum is the big
bruiser who occupies the opponent's biggest post defender, with the
Lakers frequently using him to register first-quarter body blows in
the post before turning things over to Bryant and Gasol.

Although Bynum's presence often forces Gasol to play away from the
basket, it also allows the 7-footer to feast on size mismatches
against smaller 4s. Additionally, it spares Gasol the physical
pounding of being a full-time center and instead lets him indulge in
the finesse game that he plays so well.

And then there's the change of pace with Odom. The few opponents who
have the size to deal with Gasol and Bynum rarely have a big man who
can match up against Odom farther from the hoop. His ability to take
bigger players off the dribble provides an offensive staple for the
second unit, and on some nights creates even more mismatches than the
Gasol-Bynum starting combo.



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Biggest Weakness: Point Guard

The Lakers are rock solid at four of the five positions, but point
guard remains a major question mark. While Fisher righted his ship
enough to hit some big shots in the conference finals and NBA Finals,
he was brutal for the first half of the playoffs and wouldn't start
for most of the league's teams. L.A. was fortunate to avoid quick
point guards in the final two rounds last season, but playing in a
conference with the likes of Chris Paul and Tony Parker means they may
not be spared such a fate in this go-round.

Brown was the best of the Lakers' three point guards in the
postseason, but he's also the least accomplished, careerwise, and is
more of a 2 than a 1. He's a nice stopgap to have off the bench, but
he's nobody's idea of a long-term starter at the spot.

That leaves Farmar, who's undeniably the most talented of the three
despite a horrid campaign last season. He's the one Laker with the
quickness to defend the speedy guards that give L.A. problems, but
he'll have to improve his focus and technique and, above all, he has
to make more shots.



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Outlook

Despite the fact that Orlando and Cleveland spent the summer arming up
while L.A. largely stood pat, the Lakers have an excellent chance to
repeat as champions. They won 65 games and a title a year ago despite
Bynum's and Farmar's struggles; if those two recover and the others
hold steady, the Lakers could be phenomenal. Bynum, in particular,
presents the prospect of a big performance jump if he can just stay on
the court for the whole season.

Of course, while other teams would kill to have the Lakers' problems,
it's worth noting that they do have some warts. For instance, Bryant
is 31 and his free-throw rate dropped precipitously last season,
Fisher is 35 and his two backups don't inspire waves of confidence,
Bynum has missed nearly as many games as he's played the past two
campaigns and Artest is on another planet.

That said, the Lakers are an overwhelming favorite to win the West,
especially since the other perennial contenders have fallen off the
past two years. I'm projecting them to prevail by a whopping 10 games,
so even if some players fall well short of my estimates, they should
still finish as the conference's top playoff seed.

For a second year in a row, the Lakers also may benefit from their
Finals opponent. Last season they got a break with a Jameer Nelson
being hampered for Orlando, after he was one of many quick point
guards who riddled the Lakers' defense in the regular season. This
time around they may benefit again -- Nelson is back, but I'm
projecting Cleveland to meet L.A. in the Finals. With Artest in tow,
the Lakers couldn't possibly match up better against the Cavs, which
means Phil Jackson may be able to break out his "XI" hat next June.

Prediction: 65-17, first in Pacific Division, first in Western
Conference

Na drugim miejscu sa Blazers z bilansem 55-27...

Leszczur pisze:

Skoro juz John pozwolil sobie na odwazne prognozy to niech cale prsk o
nich poczyta.

HOLLINGER'S '08-09 STATS
W-L: 65-17 (Pythagorean W-L: 63-19)

Ciekawostka przyrodnicza - zdaniem b-r Pythags wynosiły 60,6-21,4. Ktoś nas tu robi w konia.

On 1 Paź, 12:36, Tomasz Radko <t...@interia.pl> wrote:

Leszczur pisze:

> Skoro juz John pozwolil sobie na odwazne prognozy to niech cale prsk o
> nich poczyta.

> HOLLINGER'S '08-09 STATS
> W-L: 65-17 (Pythagorean W-L: 63-19)

Ciekawostka przyrodnicza - zdaniem b-r Pythags wynosiły 60,6-21,4. Ktoś
nas tu robi w konia.

Z tego co widze, to mozna roznie liczyc Pitagorasa.

Leszczur pisze:

HOLLINGER'S '08-09 STATS
W-L: 65-17 (Pythagorean W-L: 63-19)

Prediction: 65-17, first in Pacific Division, first in Western
Conference

I to jest bardzo mało prawdopodobne. Od sezonu 99/00 do 07/08 było 12 zespołów, ktĂłre wygrały w sezonie 60+ meczĂłw. Dokładnie jedna druĹźyna potrafiła w sezonie następnym utrzymać lub poprawić bilans. A i to dzięki niesamowitemu szczęściu, bo miała wtedy róşnicę między rzeczywistymi wygranymi a Pythags  -6,3 (ktoś zgadnie, o kogo chodzi?). Jak to się stało? Ano mieli bilans 12-3 w meczach rozstrzyganych 3 lub mniej punktami (i 20-4 przy rĂłznicy 5 lub mniej).

Po prostu wygrać 60 meczów w NBA nie jest łatwo. Najczęściej poza tym, że jest się dobrym, trzeba kilka razy mieć szczęście. Trudno o to przez dwa sezony z rzędu.

Dziwi mnie ta prognoza, bo Hollinger musiał słyszeć o regresie do średniej. Pamiętacie pierwszy mistrzowski zespół Lakers z O'Nealem i Bryantem? Mieli 67 zwycięstw, od tamtej pory nikt nie miał więcej. Sezon później wygrali "zaledwie" 56 meczów.

Jeżeli któykolwiek buk zaproponuje zakład z over/under dla Lakers 65 - bierzcie kredyt hipoteczny i stawiajcie under.

pzdr

TRad

> HOLLINGER'S '08-09 STATS
> W-L: 65-17 (Pythagorean W-L: 63-19)
> Prediction: 65-17, first in Pacific Division, first in Western
> Conference

Lakers z pierwszcyh 21 meczy tylko 4 graja na wyjezdzie (Warriors,
Nuggets, Oklahoma, Houston). Wliczajac to jedne potkniecie u siebie i
porakze w Pepsi Center Lakersi powinni zaczac sezon od bilansu 19-2.
imponujaco.

Leszczur napisal(a) posta, ktorego chcialbym skomentowac:

Skoro juz John pozwolil sobie na odwazne prognozy to niech cale prsk o
nich poczyta.

[cut]

Moje pytanie co prawda ma zwiazek z zacytowanym artykulem, ale nie ma z
Lakersami... co sie stalo ze stylem Hollingera?
Gdyby wyciac te (zapewne generowane automatycznie) przerywniki

HOLLINGER'S '08-09 STATS
W-L: 65-17 (Pythagorean W-L: 63-19)
Offensive Efficiency: 109.8 (3rd)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.9 (5th)
Pace Factor: 96.7 (7th)
Highest PER: Kobe Bryant (24.46)

 nie poznalbym, ze to jest jego tekst. A slowa "rate" to chyba jedyna
przeslanka by sadzic, ze ma jakis zwiazek z cyferkologia. To zmeczenie
materialu? Czy po prostu przerzucenie calej zawartosci do insidera
spowodowalo, ze stara sie pisac dla jak najszerszej widowni?
W kazdym badz IMHO stracil to co bylo dla niego unikalne i stal sie
bardziej... jak wszyscy inni. --
pzdr
wiLQ