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Insider: Nets według Hollingera.

Data: 2010-10-05 09:48:42
Autor: Leszczur
Insider: Nets według Hollingera.
Player Profiles: New Jersey Nets

Hollinger By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
Archive

We shared our forecast for the Nets in 2010-11. Now it's time to take
a closer look at their roster. Here are my player scouting reports and
'10-11 projections.

(Note: Projections are for players who played 500 or more minutes in
the NBA in '09-10.)

STARTERS

DEVIN HARRIS, PG

 Projection: 19.4 pts, 3.5 reb, 7.3 ast per 40 min; 16.57 PER | Player
card

• Lightning quick score-first guard who can drive past any defender.
• Poor set shooter but makes 15-foot step-back jumper. Draws tons of
fouls.
• Elite defender when focused but barely tried last season. Injury-
prone.

Last season Harris took a major step backward in several respects,
struggling with injuries and coming nowhere close to his All-Star
performance of a year earlier. Let's start with the injuries, since
they're the biggest concern going forward. Harris has played just 70
games once in the past five seasons, and given his slight build and
how much contact he takes, one has to worry about his ability to stay
on the court.

He also needs to play better when he's out there. Harris played a lot
of games at half-strength and drew dramatically fewer fouls than he
had a year earlier; he also shot a career low 40.3 percent from the
floor. Stylistically, he tended to pound the ball searching out shots;
while this might be an appropriate strategy if Bobby Simmons and
Trenton Hassell are your wingmen, Harris needs to make sharper,
quicker decisions this season.

Harris' shooting percentages should bounce back -- there's no way
he'll shoot 49.6 percent in the basket area again -- but he also has
to start trying on defense. Harris was arguably the best defender at
his position while in Dallas; last season he might have been the Nets'
worst. The ability is there: He's tall for the position, extremely
quick and great at taking charges. Yet the Nets -- one of the worst
teams ever -- allowed 6.8 points per 100 possessions more with Harris
on the court.

TERRENCE WILLIAMS, SG

 Projection: 15.5 pts, 7.9 reb, 5.2 ast per 40 min; 12.61 PER | Player
card

• Athletic wing with wayward jumper. Can get to the rim but doesn't
draw fouls.
• Excellent rebounder for size. Has strength, athleticism to be a good
defender.
• Can pass and create but must make better decisions. A classic "point
forward."

Williams' rookie season looked like a disaster until the final two
months, when he made tremendous strides. Prior to the All-Star break,
he shot 36.6 percent, but from March. 1 to the end of the season he
morphed into a different player. Over those 22 games, Williams
averaged 14.1 points, 7.1 boards and 5.6 assists, including a 27-13-10
triple-double against Chicago on April 9.

His full-season numbers were a mix of the great and the awful. He
really can't shoot, making only 24.1 percent of his long 2s and
ranking 64th out of 67 small forwards in TS percentage, and he doesn't
draw fouls despite his athleticism. However, he ranked sixth at this
position in rebound rate and ninth in pure point rating.

Finally, here's one more weird data point: Only three small forwards
blocked fewer shots per minute than the 6-foot-6 Williams. What's up
with that?

TRAVIS OUTLAW, SF

 Projection: 17.4 pts, 6.6 reb, 1.8 ast per 40 min; 14.40 PER | Player
card

• Long, high-jumping swingman; decent shooter who can get shot off
anytime.
• Uncoordinated defender; struggles through screens but can challenge
shots.
• Average ballhandler who settles for jumper too often and doesn't see
floor.

Outlaw missed 57 games, mostly because of a foot injury, and it
wouldn't have been a bad idea to skip the other 25 too. After a trade
to the Clippers, Outlaw shot bricks (39.3 percent) and played matador
defense while he waited for the free agency clock to strike midnight.

Nonetheless, his brief season offered a taster course of the same
strengths and weaknesses. Outlaw is far better at creating shots than
making them, but he accomplishes this without committing turnovers.
These are useful skills to have with a second unit and a reason that
he's far more valuable coming off the bench. He's also very good as a
smallball power forward, as few 4s can hang with him off the dribble.

While $35 million is too rich for that set of skills, clearly his
skills are worth something. He's only 25, but he hasn't improved over
the past four seasons and was no closer to turning the corner with his
play last season. With lots of minutes and shots on offer in New
Jersey, this will be his best chance to prove he's more than just a
bench scorer.

TROY MURPHY, PF

 Projection: 16.3 pts, 11.8 reb, 2.5 ast per 40 min; 15.71 PER |
Player card

• Lefty sharpshooter who loves to spot up at top of key for 3-
pointers.
• Superior below-rim rebounder who gets great position. Invisible on D
otherwise.
• Subpar athlete. Will shot fake and drive lane but can't finish in
traffic.

OK, Murphy isn't going to make the All-Defense team. But in virtually
every other respect, he's a heck of a player. Last season he ranked
among the top 10 power forwards in rebound rate, pure point rating and
true shooting percentage while averaging a double-double for a second
straight season. That's a doozy of a combination and explains why he's
a quality starter despite the porous D.

Once again, Murphy was the unquestioned master of the straight-on 3
from the top of the key. Last season he lobbed 175 shots from that
range; the next closest player, Toronto's Andrea Bargnani, took 109. I
would struggle to name any other category where a player had that wide
a lead on second place. Since this arrangement is unique to Jim
O'Brien's offense in Indiana, I'm interested to see how much Johnson
borrows from the Pacers' playbook to get Murphy his favored shot.

BROOK LOPEZ, C

 Projection: 20.9 pts, 10.0 reb, 2.3 ast per 40 min; 19.66 PER |
Player card

• Skilled center with 18-foot range and solid low-post game. Good foul
shooter.
• Good leaper when he can gather himself, but poor mobility. Mediocre
rebounder.
• Has shot-blocking skill but otherwise a subpar defender due to slow
feet.

Statistically Lopez had a very impressive second season, especially
given the paucity of talent surrounding him. What's particularly
impressive is that he combines two important skills -- he draws a lot
of fouls and he shot 81.7 percent from the line. Only three centers
proved more accurate from the stripe. While Lopez relied too often on
his jumper -- he made only 33.2 percent of his long 2s -- a lot of
those shots were under duress at the end of the shot clock.

Lopez needs a lot of work on his defense, however. He blocked a decent
number of shots, partly because there were so many Nets opponents
attempting layups, but his lack of mobility is a real concern. He
doesn't run the floor well and his pick-and-roll coverage leaves much
to be desired.

KEY RESERVES

JORDAN FARMAR, PG

 Projection: 16.6 pts, 3.3 reb, 4.0 ast per 40 min; 12.80 PER | Player
card

• Quick, high-leaping guard who can get to basket but doesn't see
floor well.
• Average outside shooter but an unusually bad foul shooter.
• Good defender who moves feet well but vulnerable to post-ups by big
guards.

Point guards in the Lakers' system aren't expected to set up teammates
as often as their counterparts on other clubs. But Farmar was just
ridiculous -- he placed 69th out of 71 point guards in assist ratio
and 69th in pure point rating. That explains why he couldn't take
Derek Fisher's job despite posting fairly decent numbers in other
categories and Fisher's own freefall.

Another disappointment is that Farmar has been in the league four
years and still stinks from the line -- his 67.1 percent mark was
worse than every point guard's except Rajon Rondo's. While Farmar hit
37.1 percent of his 3s and made an impressive 57.3 percent of his
shots in the basket area, it's hard to argue he's maximizing his
talents.

He wasn't a great fit in the Lakers' system and may be much more
comfortable in New Jersey. But Phil Jackson wasn't making him miss
free throws. If Farmar doesn't convert a few more and start finding
some teammates with his drives, his career is unlikely to gain much
more traction.

ANTHONY MORROW, SG

 Projection: 17.7 pts, 5.2 reb, 2.1 ast per 40 min; 13.90 PER | Player
card

• Outstanding shooter who is threat from any spot on floor. Will force
it.
• Will post small guards and turn over left shoulder for jumper; can
make floaters.
• Limited athlete and a very poor defender. Doesn't hustle back in
transition.

If Morrow isn't the best shooter in basketball, he's definitely on the
short list. Through two pro seasons, he's at 46.0 precent on 3s, 87.9
percent from the line and 44.3 percent on long 2s. Unlike a lot of
shooting specialists, he can create some offense for himself too.
Morrow had a middle-of-the-pack usage rate and pumped in 17.8 points
per 40 minutes.

That about covers the strengths; the rest of his game needs serious
work. Morrow will stop the ball searching out shots and he basically
needs to learn defense from the ground up -- he sure as heck wasn't
taught anything with Golden State. Despite those limitations, his
jumper alone should guarantee him a dozen-year career.

DERRICK FAVORS, PF

 No projection | Player card

• Long-armed, high-jumping power forward is potent shot-blocker.
• Can hit midrange J and finish at rim, but offensive game lacks
polish.
• Runs floor and rebounds well. Should be a quality defender.

Favors probably draws the widest range of scout comments of any
rookie. Some talent evaluators think he'll be a superstar; others had
a lot of questions as to why he didn't dominate more in college. The
fact his college team ran so much offense through Gani Lawal rather
than Favors can be taken one of two ways -- either as a sign that they
knew Favors wasn't as good as the pro scouts thought, or that Favors
will vastly outperform his fairly pedestrian college scoring stats.

JOHAN PETRO, C

 No projection | Player card

• Reasonably athletic 7-footer with decent 15-footer and some shot-
blocking skill.
• Poor rebounder for size; lacks basketball instincts at both ends.

Even though the Nuggets were desperate for frontcourt help, Petro sat
at the end of the bench in Denver, playing only 436 minutes the entire
season. He's only 24 and I suppose it's possible the light bulb could
still turn on. However, he's made no progress in six years in the
league and, well, let's just say my Google search for "Johan Petro
workaholic" didn't turn up anything.

DAMION JAMES, SF

 No projection | Player card

• Tough, physical forward who rebounds extremely well. Great motor.
• Has long arms and has improved rapidly as a perimeter shooter.
• A tweener who may be too small for 4. Must improve handle. Struggles
from line.

James' best hope of sticking in the league is probably as a smallball
4. He rebounds extremely well for his size and shot 38.3 percent on 3s
as a senior at Texas, so the potential is there. The problem is that
he's undersized for the 4; he's also a poor foul shooter, calling into
question those college 3-point numbers. His effort level alone is
likely to keep him in the league for several years, but he'll need to
hit jumpers to be a rotation player.

QUINTON ROSS, SF

 Projection: 7.0 pts, 3.5 reb, 1.1 ast per 40 min; 3.92 PER | Player
card

• Quick, pesky defender with wiry build. Moves feet and rarely
gambles.
• Can hit midrange jumper but otherwise useless offensively. Awful
rebounder.

Ross shot 36.3 percent and earned the dubious distinction of having
the league's worst PER in 2009-10, so I suspect he's not long for this
league. While his defense has use and he may find occasional snippets
of playing time in end-of-quarter situations when the opponent has the
ball, in the big picture he'd have to be an All-Defense-caliber
performer to justify his anemic 6.5 points per 40 minutes. He's not in
that class of defender, and it's likely he'll be bought out at some
point during the season.

KRIS HUMPHRIES, PF

 Projection: 15.3 pts, 11.8 reb, 1.1 ast per 40 min; 14.79 PER |
Player card

• Quick, aggressive power forward. Can score but a selfish offensive
player.
• Short for a 4 and struggles on D. Picks up pushing fouls trying to
guard post.
• Good driver who draws fouls but struggles to finish at rim. Good
rebounder.

Perhaps this vignette from Humphries' time in Dallas will offer some
insight into how he thinks on the court: In an early-season game
against Minnesota, Dallas teammate Jason Terry found himself isolated
against Eurostiff Oleksiy Pecherov -- a total mismatch. All the other
Mavs got out of the way … except for Humphries, who flashed to the low
post calling for the ball.

No, Humphries doesn't totally get it. He'll break the offense to
search out shots and after six years in the league, he still doesn't
know to use an arm bar to defend the post. That's unfortunate because
he has a lot to offer. He can run the floor and crash the boards,
ranking sixth among power forwards in rebound rate and ninth in free
throw attempts per field goal attempt.

Alas, he's a career 43.8 percent shooter, which is pitiful for a
frontcourt player who never shoots beyond 15 feet. His poor shot
selection is a major factor in that percentage, and it's those mental
shortcomings that prevent him from evolving into a rotation player.

STEPHEN GRAHAM, SF

 Projection: 14.4 pts, 6.2 reb, 1.3 ast per 40 min, PER 9.98 | Player
card

• Thickly built wing who rebounds well for size. Subpar outside
shooter.
• Can create own shot in a pinch but has no court vision.
• Mobility a weakness, especially guarding 2s. Mediocre defender
overall.

No, we don't know why he started the Bobcats' first four games lat
season, and we certainly don't expect that event to repeat itself. The
good news for Graham, however, is he's established something of a
career. He can score and rebound just enough to prove useful in spots
as a fringe rotation player, with his ideal role being as a fifth wing
who can fill in at either shooting guard or small forward in the case
of injury or fouls. Just don't expect him to find the open man -- he
was second to last among shooting guards in assist ratio.


2009-10 Recap

Let's start with the good news: The only place they can go is up.

Beset by injuries that exposed a multiyear plague of terrible
personnel decisions, New Jersey set a league record by losing its
first 18 games and had to rally in the final weeks to avoid setting
the mark for the worst record in history.

New Jersey's 12-win squad was awful in a great many respects, but the
worst was its simple inability to score points. New Jersey finished
last in offensive efficiency, shooting percentage, 2-point shooting
percentage, and TS percentage (see chart). By comparison, the Nets
were downright frisky on defense, where they managed to beat out five
teams in the efficiency tables.

Offensive Efficiency, 2009-10's Worst

Team Off. Eff.
New Jersey 98.1
Minnesota 98.9
Chicago 100.8
LA Clippers 100.9
Indiana 101.3
League average 104.9

Look at the roster and it's not a big surprise. The Nets had two
decent offensive players -- Devin Harris and Brook Lopez -- courtesy,
it should be said, of the only two moves in the last half-decade that
worked out well for the Nets.

Outside of that pair, they were tragicomic. New Jersey's forwards, in
particular, may have been the worst in the history of basketball. Yi
Jianlian, Bobby Simmons, Trenton Hassell and Jarvis Hayes all were key
members of the Nets' forward rotation last season; of the four, only
Yi managed to remain in the league for 2010-11; he'll serve as a
backup for another bad team (although this didn't stop the Nets from
freezing out Lopez to get Yi more touches ... brilliant). Rookie
Terrence Williams was even worse for much of the season before
rallying late, keeping hope alive that the Nets will salvage something
from their 2009 first-round pick.

They certainly won't salvage anything from their picks in 2003-07:
Antoine Wright, Marcus Williams, Josh Boone and Zoran Planinic. Those
and a few dreadful contract decisions from earlier in the decade --
most notably a six-year, $84 million deal for Richard Jefferson --
started the Nets down the road to nowhere.

What finished it off, however, was the disastrous ownership reign of
Bruce Ratner. He initiated the process of moving the team to Brooklyn
but didn't have the dough to see it through; in between, he had the
Nets cutting every financial corner they could find in order to make
ends meet. This had the predictable outcome of making bad fan support
even worse, engendering a vicious cycle of declining revenue and
further cost cuts.
HOLLINGER'S '09-10 STATS

W-L: 12-70 (Pythagorean W-L: 14-68)
Offensive Efficiency: 98.1 (30th)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (25th)
Pace Factor:93.6 (24th)
Highest PER: Brook Lopez (20.11)

Ratner's sale of the team to Russian businessman Mikhail Prokhorov at
least brings some deep pockets back into ownership. Ground has been
broken on the arena in Brooklyn and the Nets are acting more like a
real NBA franchise in funding the operation.

It also started sugar-plum visions of an overnight renaissance in New
Jersey built on the back of free-agent-to-be LeBron James. But despite
the oft-cited connection between James and Nets part-owner Jay-Z, the
Nets never appeared to be a serious player for his services.

Prokhorov has run a basketball team before, owning the CSKA Moscow
club, but in interviews he appeared to have little clue about the NBA
or how the Nets might go about winning. This didn't stop him from
bravely announcing a five-year window for the Nets to win a
championship, one that certainly would be lightning-quick compared to
the current 34-year window.

He made other bizarre moves along the way, offhandedly telling media
that general manager Kiki Vandeweghe wouldn't return (something he
might have mentioned to Vandeweghe first) and making the classic new-
owner mistake of hiring his head coach prior to naming a general
manager.

Worst Defensive Rebound Rate, 2009-10
Team Def. Reb. Rate
Golden State 68.5
Phoenix 70.8
New Jersey 71.8
New York 72.1
Denver 72.4
League average 73.7

In short, while the new Nets management has deeper pockets, we can't
say with any confidence yet that it'll prove more adept at running the
team. As for Prokhorov's proclamation about winning a title, the fly
in the ointment is that he needs some talent. The Nets had two
unusually good players for such a bad team -- Harris made the All-Star
team in 2009 and Lopez very well may in 2011 -- but otherwise the
cupboard is fairly bare. Wings Williams and Courtney Lee were the only
other rotation-caliber players on last season's roster.

The Nets did at least kill two birds with one stone by trading Lee for
Troy Murphy. Murphy is an elite defensive rebounder; New Jersey was
28th in Defensive Rebound Rate last season (see chart). Additionally,
Murphy plays power forward, a slot that was basically a running joke a
year ago. No longer will New Jersey pose the triple threat of
historically bad owner, terrible forwards and prolific losses; now the
Nets are just another run-of-the-mill bad team.

Alas, much more work remains to be done, and an odd 2010 offseason
didn't put them much closer to achieving those goals.

Offseason Moves

Avery Johnson

Didn't retain Kiki Vandeweghe, hired Avery Johnson. Vandeweghe was
shoved from the front office to the sideline last winter because the
Nets didn't want to pay a coach to replace the fired Lawrence Frank
early in the season. While Vandeweghe was dismissed in about the
coldest way possible, he wasn't head coaching material.

The decision to hire Johnson was a defensible one, except that it
appears he will have extensive power over personnel decisions too.
This rarely works; the fact that the one glaring exception is
Johnson's mentor, Gregg Popovich, offers at least a glimmer of hope
for Nets fans.

Announced Rod Thorn would not return, hired Billy King as general
manager. While it certainly would have been understandable to whack
the sole architect of a 12-70 team, it appears that wasn't the case.
Reportedly, Thorn chose not to return after disagreeing with
Prokhorov, eventually landing in Philadelphia.

Ironically, the Nets turned around and hired King, whose last tenure
with the Sixers resulted in an avalanche of bad contracts that buried
Philadelphia in the late Allen Iverson years. This was an odd choice,
to say the least, but it appears Kings' role here will be much like
his last gig. In Philly he was nominally in charge of personnel with
Larry Brown making all the important calls; this time it's Johnson who
will be doing so.

Drafted Derrick Favors. Surprisingly, New Jersey chose Favors over
DeMarcus Cousins, whom I consider the superior talent. However, New
Jersey's need was more clear at Favors' power forward position, and
scouts are high on his long-term potential. Short-term, he is unlikely
to make as immediate an impact as Cousins and will probably come off
the bench behind Murphy.

Traded 27th and 31st picks to Atlanta for 24th pick, drafted Damion
James. New Jersey's two-for-one move-up deal for James landed it a
solid reserve who can swing between the two forward positions, again
targeting the Nets' problem area from a year ago. In a few years he'll
probably play the 4 exclusively, but in his early 20s he should have
enough zip in his step to play on the wing. He'd better, because
that's where the playing time will be available this season.

Signed Travis Outlaw to a five-year, $35 million deal. New Jersey
whiffed on all the major free agents and basically signed a panic deal
with Outlaw, a halfway decent player who isn't worth anywhere near
this kind of money. One thing I will say for New Jersey's free-agent
strategy, however, is that the Nets were smart enough to go young --
they didn't sign one player older than 25. In a few more years, when
New Jersey is ready to do something of consequence, these guys should
still be contributors.

Signed Anthony Morrow to a four-year, $12 million offer sheet;
executed sign-and-trade with Golden State for a conditional second-
round pick. This was easily the best move of New Jersey's summer.
Morrow is one-dimensional, but man, what a dimension. He's among the
five best shooters in basketball and he provides the Nets with a
lights-out floor-spacer that they lacked a year ago. Additionally,
this contract was an absolute no-brainer at such a low price.
Theoretically New Jersey also gave up a 2011 second-rounder, but
there's virtually no chance of delivery; the Nets would have to finish
with one of the league's top five records for that to happen.

Traded Chris Douglas-Roberts to Milwaukee for a 2012 second-rounder.
New Jersey's other free-agent additions made Douglas-Roberts
expendable and added a dollop of extra cap space to allow the Nets to
complete their other free-agent deals. Of course, one of them we kind
of wish they hadn't ...

Signed Johan Petro for three years, $10 million. This is a brutal
contract, not because the Nets committed huge sums of money but
because they guaranteed three years to a guy who isn't any good. It's
not a big stretch to think five minimum-wage players in the D-League
could match or exceed Petro's performance over the next three seasons.
Nonetheless, he'll get first dibs at the backup center job.

Bought out Keyon Dooling, Sent Yi Jianlian and $3 million to
Washington for Quinton Ross. This was more salary-cap housekeeping,
generating more room by lowering Dooling's cap number with the buyout
and paying the Wizards to take Yi off their hands. Ross is a possible
buyout candidate as well. It's hard to remember, but the original idea
here was to have enough salary cap room to sign both LeBron James and
another max-contract superstar -- say, Chris Bosh. In retrospect this
seems comically ridiculous, but considering the Nets gave up nothing
of value to create that space, it was worth a shot.

Signed Jordan Farmar for three years, $12 million. Objectively,
Farmar's numbers have been poor the past two seasons and his
development seems to have ground to a halt. Subjectively, I think the
triangle was a terrible system for him and he'll be much more
effective in an offense that lets him handle the ball and penetrate
more. He'll likely never be more than a very good backup to Harris,
but this contract was an acceptable risk.

Traded Courtney Lee to Houston, received Troy Murphy from Indiana in a
four-team deal. This was a good use of the Nets' remaining salary cap
space after they couldn't find a taker for it in free agency. Murphy
solves several needs. I mentioned the rebounding above, but he'll also
hold down the power forward slot until Favors is ready.

Moreover, Murphy can produce another asset for New Jersey at the trade
deadline if -- as one presumes -- they're out of contention by then.
Several contenders should be interested in his expiring contract,
allowing the Nets to secure a draft pick for their trouble while
preserving an expected $20 million or so in cap space in 2011. For
however long he's there, Murphy also might be the first player in team
history to publicly admit that he grew up rooting for the Nets -- he's
from Sparta, N.J.

Signed Stephen Graham for one year, veteran's minimum. The virtual
definition of a replacement-level player, Graham will provide a
halfway decent fifth wing at the back end of the rotation. If he plays
more than five minutes a game it's a strong sign the rebuilding
project has not gone as planned.

Signed Joe Smith for one year, veteran's minimum. Smith had a tough
year in Atlanta last season and may be nearing the end of the line,
but he was a decent find as a fifth big man. If he plays well, he's
likely to be converted into a draft pick at the trade deadline.

Biggest Strength: Perimeter quickness

The most difficult part about playing New Jersey will be stopping
their guards from getting to the rim, because they have three with
outstanding quickness. The bulk of New Jersey's offense is likely to
consist of Harris, Farmar and Williams running high pick-and-rolls
with Lopez or Murphy, while the others space the floor around them.
Yes, Lopez will get a few play calls on the block too, but in general
the action will start on the perimeter.

Harris is likely to be the focal point. He's one of the quickest
players in the league and virtually impossible to keep out of the
paint off the dribble, but his tendency to look to score can ruffle
teammates. He also collided with Johnson when the two were together in
Dallas, partly because Johnson's restrictive system didn't give Harris
much freedom. That might have been appropriate with a loaded Dallas
team, but on this club Johnson needs to give Harris a lot more rope.

The other player to watch is Williams, who looked like a bust for four
months before emerging late in the season. He's the opposite of Harris
in that he's not a talented scorer but he possesses advanced passing
skills. The one disadvantage is that Williams is an inferior outside
shooter, which makes it easy for opponents to lay off him and sit on
his penetration.

Finally, there's Farmar. Like Harris he looks more to score than to
pass, but he's quick off the dribble and can get to the basket in pick-
and-rolls. Between those two, New Jersey will always have a point
guard on the floor who can create offense.

Biggest Weakness: Frontcourt defense

We have much to choose from, but frontcourt defense is likely to be
New Jersey's downfall this season. As bad as the combo of Lopez and Yi
was last season, Lopez and Murphy might be worse. The problem is that
both players share the same weakness -- they're among the slowest
players at their respective positions. That shortcoming will make the
Nets susceptible to opponent transition plays and compromise their
pick-and-roll defense.

Lopez and Murphy do offer strengths -- Lopez is a good shot-blocker
when he gets close enough to make a play, whereas Murphy is
outstanding on the defensive boards. Unfortunately, their inability to
help their teammates is likely to lead to easy penetration
opportunities for opposing perimeter players.

Moreover, the duo won't have much help off the bench. Petro, the
likely backup center, is adequate at best. Behind Murphy, Favors is
likely to take his lumps as a rookie, especially given his lack of
strength. There are few other candidates to take additional minutes --
James, another rookie who will be on a learning curve, being the most
likely option. Outlaw is another possibility, but his use as a
smallball 4 would be strictly for offensive purposes.


Outlook

The nice thing about crash-landing at the bottom of the standings is
that it will only get better from here. The Nets didn't achieve the
Plan A of nabbing LeBron James and starting a dramatic overnight
recovery, but they should start returning to respectability this
season. Harris is likely to play better than he did a year ago, Lopez
is a rising star in the post and the forwards are about a thousand
times better than last season's peanut gallery.

Plus, Johnson should prove helpful, at least on the sideline. He's
coached Harris before, and while that relationship was rocky at times,
he knows how to use him to good effect. Johnson also is likely to
demand much more from Harris and Lopez at the defensive end -- since
both of them loafed on D a year ago.

Nonetheless, this won't be an overnight recovery. The Nets can expect
nightly beatings in front of puny crowds in their first season in
Newark. However, the Nets can take solace in the fact that somebody
else will be this year's NBA doormat, while they become one of the
rare teams to double their win total from the year before.

Prediction: 26-56, 4th in Atlantic Division, 14th in Eastern
Conference

Insider: Nets według Hollingera.

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