Melo vs. Durant: Who's better?
By David Thorpe; Scouts Inc.

Look at the top three scorers in the NBA. Right behind LeBron James,
the league's best player, are two special guys with some common
threads running between them. Both are small forwards on playoff-bound
teams. Both had historic one-and-done runs in college: Carmelo Anthony
led Syracuse to an incredible national title run, and Kevin Durant
dominated college hoops as few freshmen ever have. And both learned
hoops in famously tough and talented basketball hotbeds: Melo in
Baltimore and Durant a short ride away in Washington. With LeBron, the
reigning MVP, known more for his point forward skills and power
forward physique, Melo and KD are the two best pure 3s in the game.

Durant and Melo have one more thing in common: Neither had made much
of a splash in the NBA other than as a prolific scorer -- until this
season, when each has expanded his game.

So as they face off Wednesday night, we have to ask: Who's better
overall? Who has what it takes to stand astride the Western Conference
for the next decade?

We're rating them in seven categories on a scale of 0 to 10. A 10
means world-class level, with a 5 representing a league-average score.
(Note: We used this scoring system instead of the 10-point must system
used in the Kobe-LeBron breakdown so that we could more accurately
represent Anthony's and Durant's weaknesses.)


Category No. 1: Shooting

Despite Anthony's reputation as more of a power scorer, and Durant's
being known for his silky smooth shot, these players are very similar
as shooters.

Durant's shot shows a great follow-through and good balance most of
the time. He also does an excellent job of keeping his right hand
under the ball while faking and jabbing. This allows for a quicker
release because it keeps his right wrist cocked and ready to fire, and
it's one of the most difficult concepts to learn.

The majority of his jump shots come from the midrange area, where he's
connecting on about 40 percent this season. It's a good showing, but
not great. In comparison, Dirk Nowitzki makes about 48 percent of his
midrange shots and Kobe Bryant has surged to 46 percent (ahead of
James, who's also at 40 percent). Still, Durant uses his size and
length perfectly here, usually keeping the ball high throughout the
shot to make it extremely difficult for defenders to make a play on
the ball.

From the 3-point line, he's shooting 38.2 percent on about four
attempts per game. Surprisingly, he's at his best from the wings and
top of the key (over 42 percent) and weakest from the corners (under
20 percent). To his credit, though, he rarely takes the corner shots,
given those struggles.

Anthony, meanwhile, has a great-looking, compact delivery with a quick
release and good follow-through. Like Durant, he's been making about
40 percent of his midrange shots. But unlike Durant, he often sweeps
the ball well below his knees before driving or shooting -- this
technique makes it more difficult to shoot correctly. If he kept the
ball closer to his core, he might improve significantly as a midrange
shooter.

Melo doesn't take as many 3s as Durant or shoot as high a percentage
(34 percent) -- he often struggles to complete his shooting form from
this distance.

This category is closer than I expected, but Durant's 3-point edge
gives him the round.


Durant 8, Anthony 7

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Category No. 2: Scoring

This is actually where their games are the most divergent. Melo is
blessed with the rare combination of power and quickness that LeBron
shares and Shaquille O'Neal had when he was the most dominant player
in basketball. And Anthony incorporates great timing into his attacks,
making it hard for defenders to anticipate his moves.

He can make enough perimeter shots to beat you, and he has a great
first step off the triple-threat position, enabling him to get into
the paint frequently, as well as to the foul line. He earns about 10
free throw attempts a game and is shooting 82.9 percent from the
stripe this season.

Melo has a well-crafted post game, too, and he uses it like a hammer.
He loves to seal smaller players inside after screens or cuts, and
most other small forwards are too weak or small to handle it.

Thanks to that lethal combination of posting and slashing, and his two
offensive rebounds per game, Melo takes the majority of his shots from
the paint, even though a large percentage of his possessions begin on
the perimeter -- and he makes about 58 percent of his paint shots.
This could be better, but Melo doesn't explode to the rim quite as
often as he used to.

Durant might not have Melo's physical presence, but he's lethal
nonetheless. He's brilliantly crafty at using his length to draw
fouls, a skill that gets him to the free throw line just as often as
Melo. And Durant is a slightly better free throw shooter, at 88.3
percent.

Because he's often pressed on the perimeter by aggressive defenders --
or by guys who are hotly closing out on him -- he gets ample
opportunities to drive, and he does so frequently. Although he doesn't
get into the deep part of the paint as often as Melo, Durant has,
surprisingly, been finishing better inside: He's making 62 percent of
his paint shots. Durant also uses a strong pull-up game from just
inside the free throw line.

Ultimately, KD's unique combination of size, length, agility, skills
and feel makes him practically unguardable for most defenders.

Still, no NBA player has a better offensive mix of weapons than
Anthony. Driving, shooting, posting, cutting, racing the floor,
crashing the boards and drawing fouls -- Melo uses the whole array of
options, which is why he often has his best games against the league's
best defenses and scores proficiently in late-game situations.

As their stats and skills tell us, these two are elite scorers.

Durant 10, Anthony 10

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Category No. 3: Making teammates better

In my previous player versus player breakdown, I compared James and
Bryant, and this is one category in which you can see what sets those
two apart from Anthony and Durant. Kobe is a great scorer who is also
a gifted passer, and LeBron could go down as the best wing passer/
scorer ever. Anthony and Durant, in contrast, are not at that level
when it comes to helping teammates.

Neither Melo nor KD is especially good at seeing angles for teammates
and anticipating movements by the defense, except as it relates to
finding an opening for his own bucket-getting. That's not to say these
two are ball hogs, because they're not, but their scoring talents are
far ahead of their passing skills.

We know they can find teammates -- each has recorded eight assists in
a game this season -- but it is not a strength of either guy yet. They
miss too many opportunities to get teammates the ball in great spots.

Of course, there are other ways they help their teammates: Both create
scoring opportunities for others simply by working hard on offense and
drawing the attention of the defense, as well as by not forcing the
action when double-teamed, but rather kicking the ball back out and
letting their teammates play 4-on-3.

But overall, Melo and KD are pretty ordinary in this facet of the
game.


Anthony 6, Durant 5

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Category No. 4: On-the-ball defense

Anthony is a more willing defender than he used to be. In the past, I
rarely saw the same level of intensity on defense that I saw on
offense. Now he seems more willing to stick his whole head and body
into a play to break it up, and to close out on a shooter who isn't
his primary responsibility. He also is making more of an effort to be
disruptive to ball handlers and shooters by swiping and pawing at the
ball while moving his feet. He has had two or more steals in a game 17
times this season and has a chance to set a career high in takeaways.

Still, he has some bad habits to break on defense. He rarely gets his
hand up early to contest the shot on closeouts. Perhaps even worse, he
often is caught watching the ball, forcing him to turn and try to
catch up with his man.

He also struggles to slide in his defensive stance, especially to his
left, and he stands up in his stance almost all the time rather than
getting low. And he gets stuck on screens more than he should,
considering how strong and nimble he is.

Like Anthony, Durant has improved on defense, and the improvement has
come quickly, thanks to both mental adjustments and his great length
for his position. He's likely to set a personal best in steals this
season, and maybe blocks, too. On most plays, he contests shots with
an outstretched hand, and relative to Anthony, who takes plays off at
times, Durant rests on fewer defensive possessions.

But he is not close to being a strong on-ball defender yet. He needs
to be able to continue sliding when he is guarding a hard dribble
drive. And like Melo, he too often gets caught with his back to his
man when he's helping instead of staying sideways to make recovery
easier.
Durant 7, Anthony 6

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Category No. 5: Secondary defender

Good defense begins with what we call "starting position." It's vital
to begin a possession in the right place, based on where the offensive
players are and where the ball is. A defense is doomed by poor
starting position.

Melo and Durant have been doing a great job in this area this season,
which is half the battle as secondary defenders. They typically move
off their man and toward the ball at the onset of a play. Melo might
be a bit better at showing on the ball side as the play begins, making
Denver's defense look more formidable by crowding the side of the
floor where the ball is.

But things go downhill for both players after that. Neither is alert
in help defense, and they spend more time standing or floating around
than trying to stop the other team from scoring.

This is pretty typical for monster scorers who exert lots of energy on
offense and want to avoid fouls. Anthony and Durant do the latter by
frequently not jamming cutters, pinching drivers or doubling post
threats. Fortunately, they have coaches and teammates who are aware of
their roles and do whatever they can to make up for Anthony and Durant
on defense.
Durant 5, Anthony 5

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Category No. 6: Rebounding

Durant is pretty locked in as a defensive rebounder. That's needed
because the Thunder don't get a lot of rebounding from the bigs and
are below-average as a defensive rebounding team. Only three small
forwards -- James, Gerald Wallace and Matt Barnes -- have a better
defensive rebound rate than Durant. He isn't as physical or dominant
as James or Wallace, doesn't box out especially well and still
rebounds mostly in his own area, but he is willing. With his length
and great hands, that's enough.

The same can't be said for Durant's efforts on the offensive glass,
though that's by design. The Thunder's starting guards, Russell
Westbrook and Thabo Sefolosha, crash the glass and are two of the best
offensive rebounders at their respective positions, meaning Durant has
to get back on defense. So although his offensive rebound rate is very
low for a small forward, that's OK within the team's scheme, and
Durant is able to preserve energy and fouls by not going hard after
offensive boards.

Denver wisely employs a different approach for Melo. He's a beast on
the offensive glass, pushing and fighting smaller guys and punishing
them with easy buckets this way. He's not always locked in, but when
he's on his game, it's a big part of who he is and what makes him an
all-time great scorer.

Denver is a poor defensive rebounding team, and Melo is a poor
defensive rebounder. It seems likely he could be better if it mattered
more to him. As strong a season as the Nuggets are having, improving
at rebounding would only help their cause, and getting more than 4.2
defensive rebounds a game from their best player could make a big
difference.

Melo's work on the offensive glass has an impact on the game, but
Durant's contributions on the defensive boards are stronger, and
that's a big reason the Thunder are a better rebounding team than the
Nuggets.

Durant 6, Anthony 5

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Category No. 7: Intangibles

Melo has never been known as someone who inspires teammates. It's just
not in his personality: He can shut down or get petulant when he's
unhappy. That said, he also can affect his teammates with his
performance and his confidence, and they know what to do in many late-
game situations: Get Melo the ball. They know he can carry them, and
that attribute alone can help the team get on the same page.

Team togetherness in Denver also is helped by the fact that Anthony
and Nuggets coach George Karl know each other well and by the fact
that Melo has changed in both body and attitude in his time under
Karl. So with his superstar buying in, Karl has an easier time getting
everyone else to do the same.

Another intangible Melo brings is his ability to affect opponents,
specifically the guys who have to guard him. He's one of the toughest
covers in the league, physical and often relentless, the kind of
player who can really turn it on when he knows he has an opponent who
is helpless to defend him.

Durant is more the classic "wolf in sheep's clothing" type of player.
He seems to get along with everyone and to be in lockstep with his
coaches, and he's not really a fire-breathing leader. But his youthful
physique and easygoing persona mask his hunger to dominate. As a
scorer, he brings it every night, every possession. He might never be
like LeBron or Kobe, two of the strongest personalities in the NBA,
but he can be just as effective in his own way.

So even though we recognize and applaud the growth we have seen in
Melo over the years, Durant gets the category.

Durant 7, Anthony 5

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Conclusion
Final tally: Durant 48, Melo 44

When I started breaking down video for these guys, the first thing
that jumped out was just how ordinary they both can be when they're
not in shooting/scoring mode. These guys are special players, but at
this point, Melo and KD are not in the class of LeBron, Kobe or Dwyane
Wade as all-around talents.

We constantly hear about "two-way players" or guys who "do it all,"
but there are very few of those players. Still, both Anthony and
Durant can, in the right situation, carry a team through the playoffs
and be the best player on a championship team. That puts them in
select company.

Melo is more locked in on defense than he's ever been, more willing to
give up his body for a stop (he's always been willing to do that for a
bucket), and more patient with the ebbs and flows of the game. There
is no reason to think he cannot make further progress as a passer,
help defender and defensive rebounder.

Durant, of course, is far from his peak. Yet he's already one of the
very best 21-year-olds in NBA history and better all-around than Melo,
which alone is impressive. And this season, Durant might finish as
high as second (to LeBron) in the Most Valuable Player voting and play
in a couple of playoff series.

Furthermore, if he can minimize his weaknesses in future seasons while
developing his strengths, it's entirely possible he can defeat the
King for both the award and the ring.

Leszczur napisal posta, ktorego chcialbym skomentowac:

Melo vs. Durant: Who's better?
By David Thorpe; Scouts Inc.

IMHO bardzo trafna riposta Berriego:
"David Thorpe – of ESPN.com – recently wrote a column comparing Kevin
Durant to Carmelo Anthony (insider access required).  Thorpe’s analysis
considered a host of factors including shooting, scoring, making
teammates better, on-the-ball defense, secondary defender, rebounding,
and intangibles.  For each category the players were graded on a 10
point scale, and the player with the most points was…

Wait, before I get to Thorpe’s answer, let me comment on the word
“intangible.”  This word means “not tangible” or something that we
cannot discern or measure.  And yet, Thorpe is able to tell us that
Durant offers more “intangibles” than Melo (by a score of 7 to 5).  So
we can’t measure “intangibles” but we know Durant offers more? Thorpe argues that Durant’s value – according to Thorpe’s scoring system
– is 48 while Melo scores a 44.  So 1/2 of the difference between Durant
and Anthony can be linked to something that – by definition – cannot be
measured. " ;-)


--
pzdr
wiLQ

On 10 Mar, 23:09, wiLQ <N...@spam.com> wrote:

IMHO bardzo trafna riposta Berriego:

Tak, tylko ze Berri i Thorpe mają zupełnie inne grupy docelowe
czytelników.
Thorpe pisze dla przeciętnego fana - Berri dla kompletnych maniaków.
Thrope jest praktykiem - Berri naukowcem/teoretykiem.
Thorpe pisze felietowny - Berri pisze publikacje.
Inne światy = inne cele = inna grupa docelowa = inne style = inne
metody.
Gdyby Thorpe napisał artykuł o regresji wielomianowej czy rachunku
różniczkowym, to 99% czytelników miałoby wyraz twarzy taki jak ja na
"Inglorious Basterds" - WTF???

Zgadzam się z krytyką Berriego, ale rozumiem też intencje Thorpe'a.

BTW porównania Thorpe'a i ostatni artykuł Hollingera są skierowane do
naprawdę zielonych fanów basketu. Dodawanie procentów jako miara
efektywności strzeleckiej - naprawdę? Please!

Pozdro

L'e-szczur