Data: 2010-03-30 08:12:59 | |
Autor: Leszczur | |
Insider: West Hopes Changing By The Day | |
West hopes changing by the day
PER Diem: March 29, 2010 Hollinger By John Hollinger ESPN.com Things change. And when you get a conference like the current West, in which razor- thin margins separate teams both in the standings and in terms of their general competitiveness, things can change very quickly. Seemingly minor developments are enough to shift an advantage one team had over another to a disadvantage, caused by an injury, or a trade, or a rapidly developing player, or a hundred other reasons. As a result, one of the landmines in any analytic approach to a basketball season is that we're using static numbers to explain what is a dynamic process. Things change. Most of the time the change is small enough to be basically irrelevant, but change is the only constant. To get real philosophical on you, the Denver Nuggets team that takes the floor in Dallas tonight won't be the exact same team I saw yesterday in Orlando, nor will that team be the same as the one that hosts Portland on Thursday. Most of the differences are small enough to be irrelevant -- they'll all be a day older, for instance, and they might be a bit more experienced, or more tired, or have slightly more or less brotherly love in the locker room than 24 hours earlier. However, seven of the eight playoff teams in the West (a group we can identify with virtually dead certainty after Memphis' loss in Milwaukee last night; while still mathematically alive, the Grizzlies' Playoff Odds stand at 0.1 percent as of today) have experienced a systemic jolt in the past several days large enough that it could cause us to re-evaluate their prospects going forward. While none are of the cataclysmic variety, I reiterate that we're dealing with miniscule differences heading into the Western Conference playoffs: Six teams stand within three points of each other in today's Power Rankings. In that environment, a little change can lead to a lot of outcome. And it's especially true when nearly all the changes for the top teams have been negative, and nearly all the changes to the bottom teams have been positive. At times one wonders where we'd finish with an eight-way tie for first if the season lasted long enough. And so today, we're going to take a field trip into unvarnished subjectivity. Let's take a look at what's been different lately for all eight Western Conference playoff teams, and why that's cause to re- evaluate their playoff hopes: Utah Despite the fact that the Jazz have the best Power Ranking of any team in the West, Jazz fans are nervous. They keep looking over their shoulders for the locomotive that smashed into them a year ago (an 8-15 tailspin), and may have found an immediate cause for worry in Kirilenko's balky calf muscle. I would argue AK-47 has been one of the key differences between this season's Jazz and last season's unit; he is shooting better, seems visibly more active at both ends of the floor, and is en route to his best PER mark since 2005-06. Alas, he is battling not one but two calf strains in his left leg, and has missed seven of Utah's past nine games as a result. Both times he played he re-injured himself, setting a troubling precedent going forward. The Jazz can hang on these next two weeks without him and get home court for the first round and probably even the No. 2 seed in the West. (They own the tie with Dallas. And Denver, as you'll soon read, has its own issues.) But in the playoffs, they aren't going anywhere important without a healthy Kirilenko. Lakers For L.A., it's one pro and one con. Obviously, Bynum's strained left Achilles is the big story. The Lakers say he'll be back soon, but since Bynum's previous two injuries lasted longer than originally expected, one has to worry the time frame will push into the postseason. This has to be a grave concern for Lakers fans; while there's a popular sentiment that the team is at least as effective with Lamar Odom on the court, that school of thought doesn't extend to a now-Odom-less second unit. L.A.'s lack of depth has been a major issue all season and is being laid bare in Bynum's absence. It's tempting to say it doesn't matter, since Bynum should return by the start of the playoffs and L.A. is locked into the No.1 seed, but I would offer two counters. First, the opening round of the playoffs won't be a walkover this year. The No. 8 seed is likely to be a 50-win team, perhaps the one that ran L.A. off the court in Oklahoma City a few days ago. Additionally, there's a larger goal worth considering: The Lakers haven't sewn up home-court advantage for a potential Finals rematch with Orlando, which could be hugely important come June. Enter Walton. He's played only 24 games this season due to a pinched nerve in his back but could be an underrated X factor in the postseason. He's not a great player by any means, but he'd be replacing two who have been well below par (Sasha Vujacic and Josh Powell). Additionally, his ability to play both forward spots should be a big help to L.A. matchup-wise. If Bynum and Walton are both healthy and in the mix by the end of April, L.A. could be the West's top dog again; if not, I struggle to summon faith that they'll repeat as conference champs. Portland With all the tumult over other trade-deadline upgrades, I'm amazed Portland's didn't get more attention. The Blazers traded a redundant backup point guard (Steve Blake) and a forward who had played 11 games (Travis Outlaw) for a quality starting center (Camby). Everyone understood that part, but the piece that was basically ignored was that Batum returned from injury at the same time. Now that everyone has acclimated, Portland is gaining speed. The Blazers are 11-2 since the end of February, with one of the losses coming in a game Camby missed in Denver. Suffice it to say he's a bit of an upgrade over Juwan Howard and Dante Cunningham. Meanwhile, Batum has been even better than anticipated: He's eighth among small forwards in PER and notably more potent offensively than in his rookie year, upgrading another position in which the Blazers had been getting limited production. Portland has pulled even with Oklahoma City and San Antonio as a result, and could go higher still. If the Blazers win their last four home games and road contests against the Clippers and Kings they'll finish with 51 wins, which could lift them as high as fifth in the Western playoff seedings. Oklahoma City The Thunder are the one team that has barely strayed from its trend line over the past two months, and there's no reason to expect any different going forward. The one potential bugaboo, a hamstring injury to James Harden, was both minor in the grand scheme of things and already in the rearview mirror after he scored 23 points in his first game back last week. Let's move on. San Antonio There go the Spurs, playing possum again. They threw us off by making their run a month later than usual, but Sunday's beatdown of the Celtics in Boston confirmed that the Spurs are ready to take on all comers, eighth seed or not. A brutal closing schedule will likely condemn them to a low playoff seed, but the Spurs own the West's second-best Power Ranking despite missing Tony Parker for the past three weeks. The million-dollar question for San Antonio is how healthy its starting point guard will be in April. Parker has battled foot problems all season in addition to his recent thumb injury and has seemed notably slower as a result. The Spurs are cruising anyway because Manu Ginobili has been absolutely ridonkulous since the All- Star break: 21.6 points and 5.5 assists, with 40.7 percent shooting on 3s. But he is fragile too, especially given his full-contact playing style; a spate of physical problems caused him to average only 13.4 points and shoot 40.3 percent overall heading into the break. Right now the Spurs look awesome; Manu is shredding opponents to pieces and Tony is coming back in a week. But if today's theme is "things change," we should add that "things change often" when it comes to the health of the San Antonio backcourt. Denver For most of the season, Denver has been the default choice for the West's best threat to knock off the Lakers, but the Nuggets' Achilles' heel has always been frontcourt depth. With only three quality players for the rotation, any injury up front was bound to knock them sideways. Thus, Martin's knee injury (a partially torn patellar tendon) is a huge problem -- while they're cautiously optimistic he can come back before the playoffs, there's no certainty he'll have the same bounce that makes him such an effective finisher and defender. Speaking of uncertainty, the Nuggets' coaching situation is all but unprecedented. Assistant Adrian Dantley has the reins for an indeterminate length of time while George Karl undergoes cancer treatment. As with Martin, they're holding out hope Karl can return for a playoff run, but there's no certainty he'll be able to do it. Dantley, meanwhile, is in an impossible situation as what amounts to a long-term substitute teacher: not permanent enough to crack heads and maintain discipline, but not transitory enough to just hold the tiller in one spot until the captain returns. Having a veteran team helps, but there are a lot of personalities to manage in Denver's locker room. Minus Martin and their coach, the Nuggets have lost four out of five, with the lone win a buzzer-beater in Toronto. Given the difficulty of Denver's remaining schedule, the worry is that "slump" turns into "freefall" and costs them home-court advantage for the playoffs … making for a much more challenging first round just as they're trying -- they hope -- to re-integrate Martin and Karl. Phoenix The Suns have quietly been playing as well as any team in the West over the past two months, ripping off 21 wins in their past 26 games thanks to an explosive second half from Amare Stoudemire. However, one of the main catalysts for that turnaround is a health question heading into the playoffs. Center Robin Lopez will miss at least five games with bulging disks in his back, and while he's not a big star it's still a major loss for Phoenix. Lopez's promotion as a starter keyed both the Suns' improvement at the defensive end and Stoudemire's eruption from the power forward spot (he was effectively playing center prior to that move). The Suns aren't a deep team, especially up front -- veteran retread Jarron Collins started in Lopez's place Sunday -- and this is where it could come back to bite them. I mentioned above how even minor changes could have a major effect since the margin between teams is so small, and this is a great example. Because the Suns are right on the cusp of the West's elite both in terms of the standings (one game out of second) and the Power Rankings (a close fourth), the implications could be huge. The state of Lopez's back two weeks from now could end up being the difference between an early exit and a deep playoff run. Dallas OK, I've saved the best for last. I was unmoved by the Mavs' raves over Beaubois early in the season, figuring if he couldn't beat out J.J. Barea he wasn't worth spilling much ink over. For four months that proved true, but he has completely blown up in March and spawned "Free Roddy" campaigns across the Metroplex. Beaubois' exclamation point was his 40-point outburst against Golden State on Saturday; while the list of players who have torched the Warriors isn't exactly a select group, he's been providing spectacular offensive fireworks the entire month. Check out these March numbers: a Kobe-esque 31.1 points per 40 minutes, 58.9 percent shooting and 48.8 percent on 3s. He's been so good, in fact, that he now leads all rookies in PER. We can't expect him to produce quite this bountifully going forward, but subjectively his strong play isn't difficult to explain. One of the best athletes from overseas in recent years, he's best described as a hybrid of Tony Parker and Leandro Barbosa -- he's French, small and fast like Parker, but like Barbosa he is a good outside shooter with straight-line speed who has played dramatically better as a 2. Beaubois has been under control, too, with only nine turnovers in 10 games in March, excluding last week's one-minute outings against Boston and Portland. (Insert sound of needle scratching across record.) Wait … one-minute outings? This guy? How? Well, he's not the easiest guy for whom to find good matchups. He's basically a 6-foot-2 shooting guard, at least for the purposes of this season's Mavericks (the long-term plan is for him to play the point), so one can understand the reluctance to pair him in a small backcourt with Barea, or a small and passer-less one with Jason Terry. Here's the thing: They might as well, because there's really nothing to lose here. Even the most avid Mavs Kool-Aid drinker would have to concede that a Beaubois-less Dallas rotation is winning one playoff round at best. Beaubois does three things for Dallas: He mends a glaring defensive weakness against quick point guards, he solves the need for another player who can create his own shot and he fixes an athleticism deficit the Mavs still face against several Western powers. After his breakout by the Bay, the instinct is to replace Barea with Beaubois and leave the rest of the rotation intact. Actually, I'd argue for stronger medicine: Start the guy, keep Terry coming off the bench and play Barea and Terry together against opposing second units. Shifting the rest of the rotation isn't rocket science. Having Beaubois or Terry check 2s is a worry when they're in the game together, but Caron Butler isn't exactly contending for defensive player of the year either. Despite a superficially impressive scoring average, Butler also has the worst PER of the Mavs' revised eight-man rotation; if you're curious, that's true even of his post-trade numbers. Moving Butler into a 20-minute bench role would free Roddy, and there's really no reason not to try it -- freeing Roddy might be the only thing that can keep Dallas from freeing its golf clubs this spring. |
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