....i jeszcze młodzi gniewni.
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[14:06:50] Leszek Białecki: Profiles: Oklahoma City ThunderEmail Print Comments9  By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
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Here are my scouting reports and 2011-12 projections for the Oklahoma City Thunder. (Note: Projections are for players who played 500 or more minutes in the NBA in '10-11.)




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PROJECTED STARTERS




RUSSELL WESTBROOK, PG
   Projection: 26.1 pts, 5.2 reb, 9.5 ast per 40 min; 24.60 PER | Player card

• Freakishly athletic shoot-first guard with great burst to basket. Penetrates at will.
• Shaky outside shooter. Rarely goes left. Decisions, in-between game need work.
• Could be excellent defender, but effort has slackened. Great offensive rebounder.


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The regular season highlighted all the progress that Westbrook has made in turning from a wild, turnover-prone rookie into an All-Star point guard at just 22. The postseason showcased all the work that remains: Westbrook shot 39.4 percent in the playoffs while taking a staggering 20.2 field goal attempts per game; in playoff usage rate he was second only to Chicago's Derrick Rose, and Rose didn't play with a two-time scoring champ.

While Westbrook is a magnet for criticism and Rose appears immune, their games are actually quite similar. Westbrook makes more turnovers but earns them back with more rebounds. In terms of shooting and passing they're extremely similar. In fact, Westbrook's PER (23.63) and Rose's (23.62) couldn't be closer.

The difference is that, aesthetically, Westbrook leaves a lot more to be desired. The end result may be the same, but Westbrook's mistakes are more visibly frustrating -- his shot selection is questionable, he has no in-between game (he was the third-worst shooter in the league from 3 to 9 feet, at just 26.6 percent), and his game comes across as more selfish. If he fixes these shortcomings he's first-team all-world, but last May was pretty rough on the eyes.

Defensively, Westbrook also needs to recommit. Based on his physical skills, he should be awesome. He's plainly not. While Westbrook won't be overpowered by anyone and ranked fourth at his position in steals per minute, his effort needs to be more consistent. Additionally, he's so focused on crashing the boards (first among point guards in offensive rebound rate, second in overall rebound rate) that at times he leaves the backcourt exposed for easy run-outs.




THABO SEFOLOSHA, SG
   Projection: 8.0 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.3 ast per 40 min; 10.00 PER | Player card

• Strong wing defender with good size and lateral movement. Very good rebounder.
• Handles ball well for size but has poor offensive instincts. Turnover-prone.
• Effective in open court but a mediocre outside shooter. Struggles in spot-up game.


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Sefolosha's defensive chops are well-earned; he's not quite in the elite category, but he's very good. Statistically, the Thunder played better when he was on the court, and all the sources one can use -- Synergy, 82games.com, adjusted plus-minus, and good ol' subjective evaluation -- point to him as a positive force. He ranked seventh at his position in both blocks and steals per minute and had the fourth-best rebound rate among shooting guards. His lone negative was a fairly high foul rate.

The most interesting nugget lies in his 82games.com numbers, however. Sefolosha did well defending shooting guards, holding them to a 13.2 PER, but was amazing against small forwards -- just a 10.7 mark. He's had similar differentials his entire Thunder career, leading one to wonder if he'd be more effective playing small forward full-time. Obviously that won't happen in Oklahoma City, but it's food for thought if he ever changes teams.

The other reason to chew on that idea is because offensively, well, he's not good. The Thunder were a shocking 20.2 points per 100 possessions worse with Sefolosha on the floor, even though nearly all his minutes were played with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook on the court. The issue here is that Sefolosha magnifies weaknesses already present up and down the starting five -- he's not a good shooter, he's a sloppy ball handler and he doesn't move well without the ball.

With a different team or a different role it wouldn't be such a problem; in a backcourt with Russell Westbrook, it's fairly glaring. Sefolosha was dead last among shooting guards in both scoring (7.8 points per 40 minutes) and usage rate; he shot 27.5 percent on 3s; and he didn't make up for lack of quantity with quality, as even his career-high TS% barely beat the league average for the position.




KEVIN DURANT, SF
   Projection: 29.3 pts, 7.7 reb, 2.9 ast per 40 min; 24.74 PER | Player card

• Tall, long-armed scoring prodigy with unblockable release. Deadly in transition.
• Great foul shooter. Lacks strength. Struggles to get open against physical D.
• Good handle but must improve passing. Length an asset on defense and boards.


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It's really amazing that a player could lead the league in scoring while being so terrible at getting open, and one shudders to think what Durant might accomplish if he ever gets good at it. While Durant won another scoring title last season, his usage rate declined -- partly because teams realized that physical defense off the ball makes it a real challenge for the wiry Durant to receive the ball.

Once he catches it, though, you're pretty much cooked. Durant isn't just a volume scorer, he's efficient too, with a scintillating 58.9 TS%. In particular, Durant scores virtually every time when he can push the ball up in transition -- there's just no way to stop a fast 6-10 guy who can shoot, handle and finish once he has a head of steam. Partly as a result, Durant shot a ridiculous 77.2 percent at the rim, the second-best mark in the league among players with at least 100 attempts (see Tayshaun Prince comment).

He also hit over 40 percent from all three ranges between the rim and the 3-point line, and had one of the best free throw rates at his position at 0.44 per field goal attempt. His TS% may rise, as he had an off season on 3s last season, hitting 35 percent.

The one weakness for Durant is his court vision. He was only 55th among the league's 67 small forwards in assist rate; improving in that area might deflect some of the attention he's now given and make him even more effective.

Defensively, Durant is pretty solid. He can play a low-risk style and rely on his length to contest shots, meaning he virtually never fouls, and he was eighth among small forwards in defensive rebound rate. While he's rarely asked to guard elite wings, his Synergy and adjusted plus-minus the past two seasons are very solid.




SERGE IBAKA, PF
   Projection: 16.3 pts, 12.0 reb, 0.5 ast per 40 min; 18.28 PER | Player card

• Athletic, long-armed, shot-blocking ace still learning fundamentals.
• Good outside shooter and excellent finisher at rim. Very good rebounder.
• Very poor instincts for passing and dribbling. Still a work in progress.


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Ibaka's rapid evolution into a star continued last season, as he filled out physically, hit 40.5 percent of his shots beyond 10 feet, and led the NBA in blocks per minute (see chart) ... and yet somehow spent two-thirds of the season backing up the thoroughly mediocre Jeff Green.

Most blocks per 40 minutes, 2010-11
Player Team Bk/40 min
Serge Ibaka OKC 3.57
JaVale McGee Was 3.52
Ekpe Udoh GS 3.34
Darko Milicic Min 3.32
Larry Sanders Mil 3.30
Min. 500 minutes

Green's trade allowed for Ibaka's long-overdue promotion to the starting five, where he seems likely to be a fixture for the next decade despite his raw offensive game. While Ibaka is very good at midrange catch-and-shoot situations and will finish dunks at the rim (he shot 73.6 percent in the basket area), anything that involves creating on his own or reading a defense casts a harsh light on his inexperience. He has 32 total assists in his two-year NBA career, and his pathetic 2.8 assist rate in 2010-11 was the worst among power forwards and the second-worst in the entire league (see Robin Lopez comment). His rawness also explains why he's not an offensive threat from the post, and why he averaged a modest 14.6 points per 40 minutes last season.

Additionally, some of the more subtle aspects of defense remain lost on Ibaka -- he's a great athlete and plays hard, but will get caught out of position or overpursue plays. Dirk Nowitzki's immolation of Ibaka in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals was the most prominent example, but as with all aspects of his game the fundamentals are still coming around. So despite his shot-blocking and rebounding, opposing big men could score on him -- according to 82games.com, he allowed a 17.1 PER to opposing power forwards, and 21.6 to opposing centers.

Ibaka is a very good rebounder, however, and getting better as the skinny frame he brought to the league three years ago evolves into something sturdier. Given that he's only 22, had virtually no high-level game experience when he arrived, and is already among the top third of players at his position, an All-Star Game seems possible in his future.




KENDRICK PERKINS, C
   Projection: 9.6 pts, 12.1 reb, 1.4 ast per 40 min; 10.04 PER | Player card

• Tough-as-nails post defender who likes physical play. Very strong.
• Plodding low-post game. Lacks elevation and takes forever to gather and go up.
• Sets bone-jarring screens but prone to offensive fouls. Loses cool with refs.


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Perkins played on a still-mending knee for the second half of the season, and his numbers bore the brunt of his willingness to play through pain. His scoring rate dropped to a measly 9.4 per 40 minutes, and his always-high turnover rate went up even higher to an indefensible 23.0, the second-worst mark in basketball last season (see chart).

Worst Turnover Rate, 2010-11
Player Team TO Rate
Joel Przybilla Por-Cha 29.6
Kendrick Perkins Bos-OKC 23.0
Omer Asik Chi 21.3
Nikola Pekovic Min 21.1
Joey Dorsey Tor 20.1
Min. 500 minutes

Perkins' post-up efforts in the playoffs were near comic given his missing explosiveness. Never the most graceful of interior players, he was so floor-bound that his normally high-percentage short-range shooting became a much shakier proposition.

Fundamentally, one way Perkins could improve is by learning to go up off one foot. Any time he gets a rebound or close-in catch he brings the ball down, stops to gather himself, and then goes up off two feet in a power jump. This gives defenders plenty of time to react and catch up, and the ball often gets either knocked away before he can elevate or blocked by a recovering big man.

Otherwise, the Thunder are mainly depending on his knee continuing to recuperate. Even on one leg, his defensive numbers after the trade were very solid, so there's little doubt he can provide the bulldog post defender they needed. The only question is whether he can recover enough of his preinjury offensive game to remain a viable starter.





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KEY RESERVES




JAMES HARDEN, G
   Projection: 19.7 pts, 5.1 reb, 3.4 ast per 40 min; 16.75 PER | Player card

• Skilled left-hander who excels at pick-and-roll game. Draws lots of fouls.
• Left-dominant. Sees court well but turnover-prone. Good set shooter from 3.
• Improving defender who rebounds well. Good hands, but fouls too much.


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Despite all the other talent on the OKC roster, at times you feel like Harden is the only guy on the team who actually knows how to play offense. Westbrook and Ibaka dominate solely on sheer athleticism, and while Durant is a scoring savant it's painful watching him try to get open or create for others. Harden, while less overwhelming talentwise, is much easier to appreciate -- a poor man's Manu Ginobili who generates offense for both himself and others off of actual basketball plays.

Harden's biggest skill is his ability to draw fouls on his drives, nearly all of which are on pick-and-rolls on the left side of the court. He ranked second among shooting guards in free throw attempts per field goal attempt, shot 84.3 percent at the line and had one of the highest 3-point rates at his position. So pay no mind to that low shooting percentage; Harden was sixth among shooting guards in TS% thanks to the third-best secondary percentage at his position. He likely will get better, too -- despite a good-looking stroke he made only 34.5 percent of his 3s in 2010-11.

Harden's post-trade numbers last season are particularly promising. After Jeff Green was shipped out and Harden became the third option, the Thunder guard averaged better than 22 points per 40 minutes and nearly five free throw attempts per game.

At just 22, he appears to be a rising star. One bugaboo left is his foul rate; while Harden's activity results in a high rate of steals, only five shooting guards fouled more frequently -- making it harder for him to play big minutes. Most notably, his wholly unnecessary sixth foul in Game 4 of the conference finals was the catalyst in the Thunder's shocking fourth-quarter collapse.




NICK COLLISON, PF
   Projection: 9.4 pts, 8.7 reb, 1.6 ast per 40 min; 11.60 PER | Player card

• Plus-minus superstar who is among game's most underrated frontcourt defenders.
• Excels at taking charges, helping guards. B-level athlete. Undersized for the 5.
• Decent midrange shooter but rarely shoots. Will crash offensive boards.


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Collison's plus-minus numbers defy explanation -- the list of the top players in adjusted plus-minus over the past few years is essentially a bunch of superstars and Nick Collison. According to this site, using the more advanced "regularized" adjusted plus-minus, Collison was fourth in the NBA last season at plus-5.0 points per 100 possession; of the top dozen players, he was the only one who hasn't been to at least one All-Star Game. He was 13th in 2010, so it's no fluke. In fact, according to basketballvalue.com over the two-year period, his plus-8.11 raw adjusted plus-minus ranks fifth in the league.

That doesn't make his game wartless. For one, his high foul rate makes it difficult to play him extended minutes. Moreover, Collison's offensive productivity took a worrying turn south last season. He scored only 8.6 points per 40 minutes, and while he at least contributed a high shooting percentage, his rates of rebounds and blocks also declined.

But he's still an ace defender, especially in help situations. In particular, Collison has become a master at taking charges over the past two seasons. While he's a bit of a tweener between 4 and 5, he makes up for it with preparation and good quickness for his size, and as a result is one of the most effective defenders in the game.




ERIC MAYNOR, PG
   Projection: 11.9 pts, 4.0 reb, 7.9 ast per 40 min; 12.48 PER | Player card

• Steady PG with pass-first mindset. Good handle and size but B-grade athlete.
• Average outside shot, and struggles to get to rim. Must improve floater.
• Decent position defender. Has thin frame but moves well and competes.


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Maynor certainly has the rĂŠsumĂŠ to play the point: He was 10th in pure point rating and eighth in assist rate last season, with a special knack for throwing lobs. Unfortunately, he's going to be a career backup unless he starts scoring more effectively. Maynor averaged a meek 11.6 points per 40 minutes, and did it with one of the worst true shooting percentages at his position.

Maynor wasn't awful in any one category, but he struggled to generate shots at the rim because of his lack of explosiveness. He has tried to compensate by shooting floaters but didn't shoot them particularly well, and he doesn't draw fouls. He needs to either improve his 3-point shot or juice up his in-the-paint game to be a real offensive force. He'll stay in the league for a dozen years because of his steadiness at the point, but he might not ever be a starter.




NAZR MOHAMMED, C
   Projection: 14.9 pts, 11.2 reb, 0.8 ast per 40 min; 14.72 PER | Player card

• Clever big man with knack for below-rim rebounding and short-range scoring.
• Mediocre mobility, limited leaping ability. Struggles in one-on-one defense.
• Ugly behind-head jumper with 12-foot range. Never passes. Bad hands.


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Probably the best player in history with a first name ending in "zr," Mohammed is a sneakily effective scorer thanks to his offensive rebounding acumen. He ranked eighth among centers in offensive rebound rate, helping him score 16.7 points per 40 minutes -- big numbers for a center. He'd average even more if he could catch everything that came his way, but once a game a pass will fall harmlessly off his mitts and out of bounds. Off the catch, his mindset is strictly about scoring; Mohammed virtually never passes, as his assist ratio was the second worst among centers and the third worst in all of basketball.

Mohammed is a solid team defender and will rebound, but he can't be asked to guard good scorers. Even average players turn into stars against him -- opposing centers had a 23.1 PER against Mohammed in Oklahoma City and a 20.7 in Charlotte, according to 82games.com.

Between that and a high foul rate (one every 6.9 minutes), it's tough to give Mohammed extended burn. But few backup centers provide such an offensive boost, helping him retain value into his 30s despite limited athleticism.




DAEQUAN COOK, SG (FREE AGENT -- RESTRICTED)
   Projection: 15.7 pts, 5.0 reb, 1.7 ast per 40 min; 11.92 PER | Player card

• Jump-shooting wing with strong catch-and-shoot game. Elevates well on jumper.
• Quality athlete, but a weak ball handler. Never ever ever goes to the basket.
• Solid, unspectacular defender but a bit undersized for the 3. Not a rebounder.


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Cook shot horribly on 2s in his three seasons in Miami, so the Thunder had a novel solution: removing the 2s from his arsenal entirely. This is exactly what Jason Kapono should have done about half a decade ago, and you could see the benefits for Cook -- for the first time in his career, he was a useful rotation player.

Cook did what was asked of him, hitting 42.2 percent of his 3s and providing a much-needed floor-spacing component, but his shot chart was fairly amazing to behold. He took five shots at the rim the entire season. Five. All but nine of his 172 shots were outside 15 feet, and nearly all of those were 3-pointers -- only two players had a higher proportion of their shots from beyond the arc (see James Posey comment), and they were 30-somethings with careers on their last legs, not a 24-year-old.

Cook's catch-and-shoot focus yielded the highest TS% among small forwards and a low turnover rate, and he made enough shots that he averaged a solid 16.0 points per 40 minutes. None of this makes him a star, but it does make him a lot more useful than when he was taking half his shots inside the arc -- and shooting under 40 percent on them -- in Miami.




NATE ROBINSON, PG
   Projection: 16.7 pts, 3.6 reb, 4.7 ast per 40 min; 11.52 PER | Player card

• Flaky, emotional, pint-sized guard with explosive hops. Aggressive scorer.
• Good outside shooter but shot selection an issue. Gets out of control.
• Strength, athleticism partly offset size on D. Loses focus, gambles and fouls.


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Robinson really struggled in the Boston half of his season, which explains why the Oklahoma City portion was largely spent at the end of the bench. He only played 30 minutes in four garbage-time appearances for the Thunder and doesn't appear to be in the team's plans.

In 55 games with Boston, Robinson's shot betrayed him. He made only 32.8 percent of his 3s and 36.0 percent of his long 2s, and since he wasn't about to stop shooting -- Robinson had the fourth-worst pure point rating among point guards -- this became a problem. Quietly, he also has stopped drawing fouls. Robinson had the third-worst free throw rate among point guards, partly because more than half his shots were 3s and partly, one fears, because he's lost a step.

Defensively, Robinson is a mess. Only one point guard fouled more frequently, and he didn't offset it with steals; in fact his steal rate was painfully low. Again, one wonders if a loss of quickness is partly to blame; at 5-9, he can't afford to drop off much in that department, which explains why a lot of small guards fade quickly in their late 20s. Robinson is 27 and his chunky build probably isn't helping him any, so the clock is ticking.




COLE ALDRICH, C
   No projection | Player card

• Long big man who was a step slow on virtually everything as a rookie.
• Offensive skills and finishing instincts a major question mark.
• Needs to improve defensive reactions and reduce fouls. Must add strength.


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Aldrich played only 142 minutes, but he was bad enough in that time for the "b" word to form on people's lips. It's still too early to proclaim him a bust, but for a three-year college player who was drafted in the lottery, that was one ugly rookie season. Aldrich committed 30 fouls in his limited run, an amazing rate of one per 4.7 minutes, and had as many turnovers as baskets. Subjectively, he seemed overwhelmed by nearly everything, especially on defense.

In 21 D-League games he showed more promise. Aldrich blocked a shot every 11 minutes, cut the fouls to a more reasonable level and did solid work on the boards. Offensively, however, he still has a long way to go. Even against D-League competition he had a high turnover rate and barely averaged double figures.

If he can turn into a young Joel Przybilla clone -- which is certainly possible -- the Thunder won't sweat the lack of offense. But for a 23-year-old lottery pick, he's more of a project than advertised.

BYRON MULLENS, C
   No projection | Player card

• 7-foot project with decent athleticism and a decent midrange jumper.
• Few other basketball skills. Needs to improve strength and get more reps.


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Mullens played 85 NBA minutes all season, 29 of which came in a meaningless season-ender against Milwaukee, and his results were no better than his limited run a season earlier.

In 14 D-League games, however, he showed considerable improvement from the season before. Mullens showed some of the scoring ability that made him a first-round draft pick, averaging better than a point every two minutes while shooting 53.1 percent. His rebounding and shot-blocking were average at best, but the 22-year-old has shown he may yet become an effective pick-and-pop big man.




ROYAL IVEY, PG
   No projection | Player card

• Defensive-minded combo guard with good lateral movement and intensity.
• Decent midrange shooter but struggles from distance.
• Below-average ball handler and decision-maker. A stopgap-only point guard.


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Ivey played only 25 games for the Thunder and didn't dramatically alter his career prospects with his performance. Essentially, he was about what they expected -- a useful fifth guard because of his defense and the fact that he can make a 17-footer, but one who is utterly unsuited for any duty beyond that because of his grave offensive limitations.

dzięki! jeśli można, to poproszę jeszcze suns i lakers :)

W dniu 2011-11-29 15:26, lorak pisze:

dzięki! jeśli można, to poproszę jeszcze suns i lakers :)

Noo, podobno Lakers sa fajnie opisani. Zwlaszcza Artest! :-)

Pozdr
Slawek