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Behind the Bets: The Zig Zag TheoryYou're not betting the NBA properly
until you know Zig Zag TheoryComment Email Print Share  By Chad
Millman
ESPN The Magazine
Archive This is what every wise guy and bookmaker is thinking about
once the NBA playoffs tip off: Zig Zag Theory.

It's not some late-night plan cooked up by bettors who owe too much,
own too little and need to avoid getting pinched. It's a philosophy
combining pattern recognition and bettor's logic (aka, insanity) that
dictates how every spread is made and how every sharp bets pro hoops
for the next eight weeks.


Getty Images
Is he zigging or zagging?
The theory is pretty simple: If a team covers the spread in one game,
bet against it to cover in the next. "You see a favorite that wins and
covers, you would think they would be favored by more in Game 2," says
my guy Scooch at the Orleans. "But they are almost always favored by
less because other teams are expected to come out blazing."

Take a look at the patterns for the Heat-Hawks series. In Game 1, the
Hawks were favored by five and won by 26. And yet, in Game 2, the
spread actually dropped half a point, to Hawks minus-4.5. Most of the
wise guy money came in on the Heat, and they easily covered. Same
thing with the Mavs and Spurs. San Antonio was a 4.5-point fave in
Game 1 and lost. But what happened in Game 2? The Spurs opened as a
5.5-point fave and got bet up by professionals to 6-point favorites.
They won going away by 21.

Of course, the theory isn't foolproof. And the cat and mouse between
bettors and bookmakers as they play Zig Zag is fascinating. Remember,
bookmakers want to post a spread that makes people bet, not one that
predicts the final point difference in a game. They know wise guys are
going to consider the Zig Zag Theory when making their plays, so they
need to decide how many points that is worth when making the spread.
Is it one? Two? That can mean the difference between money earned and
money lost.

Meanwhile, wise guys need to decide whether they're getting taken by
inflated spreads. "I was betting the Zig Zag 30 years ago," one
ornery, veteran wise guy told me. "Now the problem is the whole world
knows about it and in most cases the line is overpriced. It is like
betting into a stacked deck."

Take a look at the Pistons-Cavs series. In Game 1, Cleveland was
favored by 11.5 points and blew out Detroit 102-84. But in Game 2,
rather than using the 18-point win as a reason to increase the spread,
bookmakers made the Cavs 11-point favorites. Then the wise guys bet so
heavily on the Pistons the point spread dropped, from 11 to 10.5.
Everyone expected the Pistons, down 1-0, to come out aggressive and
desperate and, even if they didn't win, keep the game close. Of
course, the bettors were wrong. Cleveland won Game 2 by 12, covering
the opening line by just a point.

Same thing happened in the Magic-Sixers series. Even though the Sixers
stole the series opener as nine-point dogs, bookmakers upped the
number in Game 2, posting the Magic as 10-point favorites. "We just
expected people to bet the Magic so we put up a high number," Scooch
says. Sure enough, that's what happened. Then the Magic went out and
won Game 2 by nine. The wise guys got suckered.

So, should you zig or should you zag over the next couple of days? I'm
here to help, with a breakdown of the Friday, Saturday and Sunday
games where point spreads are available:


Game: Cavs at Pistons, Friday
Current Line: Cavs minus-4.5
Here's another Zig Zag Theory rule of thumb: A series starts over when
it changes locations. With the Cavs covering both games in Cleveland,
I'd say stick with them in Detroit. Not just to win, but to cover.

Game: Magic at Sixers, Friday
Current Line: Magic minus-3.5
Classic Zig Zag game. Philly has struggled for so long. Now it's got a
playoff game at home in a series tied 1-1. The team will be pumped.
Even the Philly fans will cheer, at least at first. If they don't win,
the Sixers will keep it within the spread. I say they will cover and
win the game.


Game: Trail Blazers at Rockets, Friday
Current Line: Rockets minus-5.5
The Rockets won Game 1 as 'dogs. The Blazers won Game 2 but didn't
cover. Now, back in Texas, the Rockets are getting a lot of points in
a game between two evenly matched teams. Take the Blazers to cover but
the Rockets to win.


Game: Hawks at Heat, Saturday
Current Line: Heat minus-4
This series is following a classic Zig Zag. The Heat were blown out in
Game 1, then did the blowing out (and covering) in Game 2. So what
happens with the series reset in Miami and the Heat as the faves? I
like the Hawks to cover … and win.


Game: Nuggets at Hornets, Saturday
Current Line: Hornets minus-4
Home-court advantage in the NBA is worth four points during the
regular season. During the playoffs, it's worth six, which is why the
Hornets are favored, even though they've lost two games badly. In this
case, there will be no zagging, as far as the spread. Denver will not
only win, but also cover.


Game: Spurs at Mavs, Saturday
Current Line: Mavs minus-4.5
This series is zigzagging so much it'll give you whiplash. Mavs cover
in Game 1. Spurs cover in Game 2. Mavs win by 21 and easily cover in
Game 3. So what do you think will happen in Game 4? The bookmakers are
thinking the same thing, which is why, after making the Mavs five-
point faves in Game 3, they made them only 4.5-point faves in Game 4.
They know San Antonio is the play.


Game: Lakers at Jazz, Saturday
Current Line: Lakers minus-3
The Jazz stole Game 3, in which they were two-point dogs. Now
bookmakers have upped the spread by a point, knowing you are ready to
zag after the Lakers failed to cover. Even at minus-3, you've got to
know this is a value for the Lakers.


Game: Celtics at Bulls, Sunday
Current Line: Bulls minus-2
The Bulls were 8.5-point underdogs in Game 1. By the time Game 3
tipped off, they were three-point favorites. "That's one of the
biggest swings I've ever seen," Scooch says. Of course, they got blown
out at home. If you believe in the Zig Zag, they'll not only cover
Sunday's game, but also win easily. I gotta tell ya, I believe.